Nakina, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

316
FXUS62 KILM 061506
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1106 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain northeast of the area through
Wednesday. A cold front will bring an end to the warm stretch of
weather beginning Thursday. The front itself will only bring
minor rain chances.
&&
.UPDATE...
As of 9:00 AM... Cancelled the Small Craft Advisory as 6 ft
seas remain confined to small outer portions of the coastal
waters near 15-20nmi offshore of Cape Fear and 15-20nmi offshore
of the South Santee River. Extended the Coastal Flood Advisories
for the Cape Fear River at Downtown Wilmington and the SC
coastal areas through this evening`s high tide as minor tidal
flooding appears likely with the next several high tide cycles.
The NC beaches have been getting close to but just missing minor
flooding by 1-2 inches, so this morning`s advisory was allowed
to expire, but a new advisory may be raised this afternoon as
astronomical tides continue to rise with the full moon occurring
tonight.
High rip current risk has been expanded to include Horry County,
Ocean Isle Beach and westward in Brunswick County, and beaches
north of Cape Fear (New Hanover and Pender).
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Not much change in the pattern today with sfc high pressure
still centered off to the NE and weak upr-level ridging along
the eastern seaboard. Onshore low-level flow continues, breezy
at times at the sfc, with isolated showers near the SC coast
this morning as has already been the case since midnight.
Confidence is not particularly high that these showers will
continue all day, but will reevaluate in future updates.
Otherwise, expect a partly cloudy sky on average with temps
slightly above normal for early October...highs in the low/mid
80s with lows tonight in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Expect another warm and mostly dry day Tuesday with subtle
troughing bringing in a cold front from the west Wednesday. Pops
seem reasonable and consistent just under likely with the
system. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s warming a bit
from the past few sessions with lows in the lower to middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended period continues to look interesting as the front
moving across midweek stalls just offshore. With the mid level
trough meandering in the southeast and in some ensemble
solutions cutting off the baroclinic zone becomes active. Some
solutions are rather wet for coastal areas as well. For now
there is good agreement among offices the bulk of the activity
will remain offshore or aligned just along the coast.
Temperatures will certainly take a hit with the behind the front
and developing NE flow with highs dropping into the 70s and
lows settling nicely in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered showers and pockets of MVFR continue over portions of
NE South Carolina this morning as of 11Z. Included VCSH for
KFLO, but in general a transition to VFR is expected through the
morning with low confidence in widespread MVFR. More high
clouds across the area today with winds gusty at times for
coastal terminals, but only up to 17-20 kt.
Extended Outlook...VFR conditions prevail most of the time. Low
to moderate confidence in patchy dense fog during the early
mornings Tuesday and Wednesday, with rain chances returning
starting Wednesday afternoon as a cold front approaches from
the west.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Easterly winds averaging ~15 kt continue
through tonight with sfc high pressure centered off to the NE.
12-13 second easterly swell also continues, as does a SCA for 6
ft seas out 15- 20nm until early this evening, with seas 3-5 ft
thereafter for tonight.
Tuesday through Friday...East to southeast winds will be in
place Tuesday and most of Wednesday on the order of 10-15 knots
with significant seas of 2- 4 feet. A dramatic change is in
store the from that point as a strong NE flow develops in the
wake of a front. Certainly small craft conditions seem a given
and in the end most likely gale conditions. Significant seas
will increase to 3-8 feet.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Onshore flow and rising astronomical tides due to the full moon
today will bring minor tidal flooding with each high tide cycle
across the beaches and along the lower Cape Fear River
including downtown Wilmington at least through the first half of
this week.
Rip currents: High rip current risk is in effect for east and
southeast facing beaches in our area due to 4-5 ft SE swell
continuing to impact our beaches. High rip risk is forecasted to
continue through tomorrow before improving on Wednesday.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO/ABW
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion