Morgans Point, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

552
FXUS64 KHGX 230526
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Locally heavier rain
  possible at the coast.
- A frontal boundary will bring a higher chance of more widespread
  shower and thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday. Locally heavy /
  strong thunderstorms are possible.
- Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures prevail into the end
  of the week behind the front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
For today`s outlook, I`m going with a perstence-ish forecast,
emphasis on the `ish`. Much like recent days, I suspect the radar
to be a little more active than the guidance suggests. But
mid/upper ridging appears a little less stout for today. In
addition, a surge of very high PWATs (2"+) is pushing into the
coastline this morning. This tells me that rain chances are at
least somewhat higher than yesterday (at least near the coast).
But it also tells me there`s a better chance of locally heavy
rainfall, especially in our coastal counties. We`ll be watching
the radar carefully this morning in case one of these locally
heavy showers / storms decides to drop a quick few inches of
rainfall.
If you don`t receive rain today, perhaps you will finally get your
chance on Wednesday. The LL atmosphere remains PWAT rich as a
deep-layer trough digs southward, providing synoptic lift and
gradually increasing shear. Meanwhile, a cold front pushes
southward, enhancing LL convergence. The setup appears favorable
for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Parameters
are favorable for locally heavy rainfall capable of localized
flooding. In addition, conditions appear conditionally favorable
for a few stronger thunderstorms capable of a damaging wind gust.
So the radar will be worth a watchful eye on Wednesday as well.
For areas near the coast, the rain and thunderstorm threat
continues into Thursday morning before a much drier air mass
sweeps into the region in the front`s wake. Temperatures and
humidity continue to appear lower during the second half of the
week. Perhaps we can muster a few days in the 80s with lows well
down into the 60s. Not bad for late September. Should feel better
compared to the humid 90s we`ve seen of late.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Overall wx pattern isn`t substantially different tonight-Tuesday
from what we`ve seen in recent days...so a forecast of persistence
looks to be the way to go in regards to the upcoming TAF package.
Lingering isolated showers should dissipate shortly, followed by
some late night & early morning redevelopment near the coast and
offshore. Then once daytime heating and the baybreeze/seabreeze
work their magic...some sct development should transition inland
into the afternoon. VFR conditions should mostly prevail (outside
of convection and spotty areas of fog tonight).  47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Moderate south to southeast
winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
today. On Wednesday, winds will shift southwest ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front will bring a better chance of
more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday
into Thursday morning. A few stronger thunderstorms capable of
gusty winds possible. Winds become more northerly in the front`s
wake on Thursday and Friday. Winds are expected to be moderate to
strong at times, possible warranting caution flags.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  74  95  75 /  10   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)  91  77  92  78 /  40   0  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  88  81  89  81 /  40  20  40  20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion