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Morgans Point, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

552
FXUS64 KHGX 230526
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Locally heavier rain possible at the coast.

- A frontal boundary will bring a higher chance of more widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday. Locally heavy / strong thunderstorms are possible.

- Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures prevail into the end of the week behind the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For today`s outlook, I`m going with a perstence-ish forecast, emphasis on the `ish`. Much like recent days, I suspect the radar to be a little more active than the guidance suggests. But mid/upper ridging appears a little less stout for today. In addition, a surge of very high PWATs (2"+) is pushing into the coastline this morning. This tells me that rain chances are at least somewhat higher than yesterday (at least near the coast). But it also tells me there`s a better chance of locally heavy rainfall, especially in our coastal counties. We`ll be watching the radar carefully this morning in case one of these locally heavy showers / storms decides to drop a quick few inches of rainfall.

If you don`t receive rain today, perhaps you will finally get your chance on Wednesday. The LL atmosphere remains PWAT rich as a deep-layer trough digs southward, providing synoptic lift and gradually increasing shear. Meanwhile, a cold front pushes southward, enhancing LL convergence. The setup appears favorable for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Parameters are favorable for locally heavy rainfall capable of localized flooding. In addition, conditions appear conditionally favorable for a few stronger thunderstorms capable of a damaging wind gust. So the radar will be worth a watchful eye on Wednesday as well. For areas near the coast, the rain and thunderstorm threat continues into Thursday morning before a much drier air mass sweeps into the region in the front`s wake. Temperatures and humidity continue to appear lower during the second half of the week. Perhaps we can muster a few days in the 80s with lows well down into the 60s. Not bad for late September. Should feel better compared to the humid 90s we`ve seen of late.

Self

&&

.AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 554 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Overall wx pattern isn`t substantially different tonight-Tuesday from what we`ve seen in recent days...so a forecast of persistence looks to be the way to go in regards to the upcoming TAF package. Lingering isolated showers should dissipate shortly, followed by some late night & early morning redevelopment near the coast and offshore. Then once daytime heating and the baybreeze/seabreeze work their magic...some sct development should transition inland into the afternoon. VFR conditions should mostly prevail (outside of convection and spotty areas of fog tonight). 47

&&

.MARINE... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Moderate south to southeast winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today. On Wednesday, winds will shift southwest ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will bring a better chance of more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday into Thursday morning. A few stronger thunderstorms capable of gusty winds possible. Winds become more northerly in the front`s wake on Thursday and Friday. Winds are expected to be moderate to strong at times, possible warranting caution flags.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 74 95 75 / 10 0 10 10 Houston (IAH) 91 77 92 78 / 40 0 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 88 81 89 81 / 40 20 40 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. &&

$$

DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...47 MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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