Montezuma, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

300
FXUS63 KDDC 030400
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through midday Sunday.
- Unseasonably hot Friday with strong south winds.
- Even stronger south winds expected Saturday, with gusts
  near 45 mph.
- Cold front arrives Sunday night, with scattered thunderstorms
  favoring the northeast counties.
- Much cooler temperatures expected next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
WV imagery indicates an upper level ridge axis extending
northeast from the Desert Southwest into the Western High
Plains. Near the surface, a weak area of low pressure is
situated across extreme southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles.
Dry and very warm conditions are forecast early in the period
as the SREF shows ridging aloft continuing to amplify northeast
through the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas
tonight with the ridge axis then shifting eastward into the
Central Plains Friday. Considering a fairly weak flow aloft
combined with very little instability present, precip chances
will remain absent across southwest/central Kansas through
Saturday night.
A trend of unseasonably warm temperatures will continue
tonight and Saturday with little change to the general air mass
across western Kansas. With the HREF indicating a 60 to 80%
probability of temperatures dropping below 60F in west central
Kansas and much of southwest Kansas to a 60 to 80% probability
of temperatures slipping below 65F in south central Kansas,
expect lows mainly in the 50s(F) out west to the lower 60s(F)
east. For Friday, the HREF paints a 70 to 90% probability of
temperatures exceeding 85F in south central Kansas to that same
probability of temperatures topping 90F in extreme southwest
Kansas. So look for widespread afternoon highs pushing the upper
80s(F) to 90F. Similar temperatures are expected Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Excellent flying weather will continue through 15z Fri, with
VFR/SKC continuing and light winds. After 15z Fri, south winds
will increase at all airports, gusting 30-32 kts through the
afternoon. After sunset/00z Sat, S/SE winds will remain elevated
to strong in response to a low level jet. Began mentioning
low level wind shear at the end of this TAF period.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion