Monitor, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

409
FXUS66 KOTX 042302
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
402 PM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty north winds developing Saturday evening into Sunday in
  central Washington and far north Idaho.
- Dry Sunday onward with chilly overnight lows falling into the
  upper 20s and 30s.
- Pattern becomes highly uncertain by Wednesday of next week.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions expected over the weekend into early next week
with chilly overnight lows and areas of frost. Breezy northwest
winds Friday shifting north Friday night into Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: With the cold front having moved out of the
area, winds in the Cascade gaps have relaxed. Some light
precipitation is anticipated in mountain areas due to orographic
lift, but any precipitation amounts will be less than 0.10
inches. Main focus now is on a strong ridge of high pressure in
the Gulf of Alaska that will move eastward throughout the day,
resulting in northerly flow through eastern Washington and
northern Idaho this afternoon through the weekend. A surface
high positioned east of the upper-level ridge will drop down
from Canada into Montana, which will strengthen the north-south
surface pressure gradient and bring gusty northerly winds
funneling down the Okanogan Valley and into the Columbia Basin.
Areas in the basin that will experience the highest winds are
the Ephrata and Moses Lake area, with the HREF showing a 60
percent chance and higher of wind gusts stronger than 35 mph
late tonight through tomorrow morning. Additionally, northerly
winds will be funneling down the Purcell Trench and into the
northern Idaho Panhandle. Areas such as Sandpoint and Coeur
dAlene also have a chance of seeing gusty winds, though they
will be lighter than those in the Columbia Basin. Sandpoint sees
the highest chances, with a 60 percent chance of wind gusts
greater than 30 mph. The Coeur dAlene area has a 10 percent
chance of wind gusts greater than 25 mph. As this ridge moves
in, PWATs will drop to 60-80 percent of normal, leading to dry
conditions with no precipitation anticipated through Tuesday.
This northerly flow will usher in chilly overnight temperatures,
especially for sheltered valley locations such as Republic,
Colville, and Deer Park, which could have their first freeze of
the year this weekend. In particular, Sunday night into Monday
morning will be coldest due to minimal cloud cover enhancing
radiational cooling. High temperatures will increase into the
high 60s and low 70s by Tuesday, with low temperatures gradually
increasing through the week into the 40s.
Wednesday through Saturday: Ensemble model confidence drops
significantly on Wednesday and through the rest of the week.
Though there is good agreement in a low pressure system off the
PNW coast, there is high variability in the location and track.
Half of the ensemble clusters point to an upper level low moving
inland, which could bring a chance of precipitation and cooler
temperatures back to the area by next weekend. The other half
shows higher heights remaining over the area through Friday,
which would bring continued warmer and drier temperatures. We
will keep a close eye on how the models evolve over the coming
days.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast
period. A cold front moving through this evening will result in
northerly winds funneling down the Okanogan Valley and into
KEAT/KMWH/KOMK with gusts up to 30kts. Additionally, winds at
KPUW/KMWH/KLWS are gusting to around 20kts and look to do so
until around 02Z. The timing for these winds will be 00-06Z.
There is a chance for breezy northerly winds in KCOE but current
CAMs are only showing a 10 percent chance of gusts near 20-25
kts, so put in sustained winds above 10kts starting at 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions. High confidence continues for
breezy north winds in the Okanogan valley to the Moses Lake Area
peaking Saturday night into Sunday morning.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        40  61  36  65  38  70 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  60  37  63  41  69 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        35  61  34  63  37  69 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       45  66  42  67  43  73 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       30  62  26  65  29  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  57  36  61  40  65 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        40  58  38  63  42  68 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     43  66  34  68  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      42  62  43  66  45  68 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           41  64  41  67  44  70 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion