Minturn, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

977
FXUS62 KILM 201848
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
248 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through the middle of
next week. More unsettled weather possible late next week as a
cold front approaches.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some instability across the Pee Dee was producing a fair amount
of cu and some shower activity. The best instability looks to be
west of our local forecast area but should see potential for some
brief heavier showers mainly I-95 corridor and west, especially
in SC. Any showers and aftn cu will dissipate into early this
evening, but this lingering shallow moisture. The winds tonight
should remain up enough to prevent any fog, but areas with this
lingering moisture may drop off enough to lead to some fog,
mainly across the Pee Dee into early morning. Temps will drop
into the low to mid 60s.
High pressure will build down from the north while a coastal
trough will become more pronounced offshore into Sun. A weak
shortwave passing by to the north may help to enhance the
convection associated with the trough over the waters to the
north overnight. This may aid in moisture advection from the NE
into Sun morning. Guidance and sounding data is showing a mix
of high level moisture around 25-30k ft and low clouds around
1500 ft moving into the area from the NE for Sunday morning.
Confidence is low as to how much cloud cover we will see through
Sun, but overall expect a mix of sun and clouds through Sun.
Clouds and stiffer NE winds could help to keep temps a few
degrees lower on Sun, but still remaining above normal into the
80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Relatively benign weather will continue through the
early work week. Surface high pressure will build in and or remain
anchored in from the northeast early on but quickly lose its parent
ridge with the pattern becoming very diffuse. Some very low chance
pops remain for mainly coastal areas Tuesday but are low confidence
in nature. Really no changes to the temperatures with highs in the
middle to perhaps upper 80s or so and lows in the middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Massive mid level low will develop across the Mississippi
Valley and trudge slowly to the east. Some recent guidance keeps
the system to the west of the area for the entirety of the
forecast. To the extent the system is able to tap into available
moisture remains uncertain thus pops are similar to this time
yesterday for week`s end. If the system jogs to a more favorable
deep layer moisture position some decent rainfall amounts are
possible. Way too early to say with any confidence at this
point. Temperatures will tend to be a few degrees above normal
for this time of year seemingly for the period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expecting VFR at terminals through most of the overnight hours,
but may see a brief reduction due to convection across the Pee
Dee region. Greatest chc of sub-VFR would be at FLO up through
01z. Otherwise NE winds will get offset by sea breeze but the
slightly stronger flow today will keep winds along coastal
terminals mainly E before shifting back to NE this evening. A
slightly tighter gradient flow will keep winds up overnight but
may drop enough to produce possible fog, mainly for FLO where
aftn convection could leave some lingering moisture to work
with. Sub-VFR conditions may occur with low ceilings into Sun
morning in increasing NE flow.
Extended Outlook...Moderate potential for low cigs/vsbys Monday
morning. Better potential for isolated showers returns the
middle of next week.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Sunday...The pressure gradient will tighten through Sun as
a coastal trough develops and high pressure builds from the
north. NE winds will increase up to 15 to 20 kts overnight into
Sun with some higher gusts. Stiff NE winds will produce building
seas from 2 to 4 ft up to 3 to 5 ft into Sun. Although an
occasional gust up to 25 kts and a few 6 fters in the outer
waters are possible, overall, expect conditions to remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria. The best chc if it does occur will be
Sun aftn into early evening.
Sunday night through Thursday...NE winds will be in place
through early Monday and remain somewhat elevated in a range of
15-20 knots. With significant seas of 3-5 feet there is a
dwindling chance for a small craft advisory as well. The
gradient will weaken Tuesday with winds continuing from the
northeast. By midweek or so an onshore flow develops than shifts
to south/southeast late in the period due to an approaching
system.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...SHK/RGZ

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion