Mill Springs, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

036
FXUS63 KJKL 022016
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
416 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and generally above normal temperatures persist into early
  next week.
- Into the weekend, valley fog is likely to develop each night.
- Chances for rain will return by Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 414 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
The latest surface analysis continues to feature the persistent
surface high, which has now shifted eastward and is centered over
the St. Lawrence Seaway and northern New England. Although the
high-pressure center is displaced well to the northeast, its
expansive influence is still being felt across eastern Kentucky as
radar is clear and temperatures across the area have already
warmed into the mid to upper 70s. For the remainder of the day and
throughout the immediate forecast period, this persistent dome of
surface high pressure and associated upper-level ridging will
remain entrenched across the northeastern CONUS. The presence of
this stable synoptic pattern will maintain prevailing dry
conditions and seasonably warm temperatures. Maximum temperatures
today and Friday are forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s.
Consistent with the dry regime, will continue to deviate slightly
from NBM guidance by lowering dew points and associated afternoon
minimum RH values during the day, as the prevailing synoptic flow
is not positioned to advect significant moisture into the area. As
for the overnight period, skies will remain predominantly clear
which will facilitate efficient radiational cooling of the
surface; therefore, increasing the potential for localized dense
fog formation within river valleys and other low-lying areas.
Minimum temperatures are expected to fall into the low to upper
50s, with the coldest readings confined to the more sheltered
eastern valleys.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 414 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
Very little change is anticipated in the overall synoptic pattern
going into the extended forecast period, as the upper- level
ridging persists with the ridge axis positioned directly over the
CWA. Simultaneously, a closed upper-level high remains situated
over the Gulf Coast. However, to the west, an advancing upper-
level longwave trough and associated jet streak are poised to move
off the Rockies and into the Central Plains. At the surface, a
low-pressure wave will similarly track eastward off the Rockies
and slowly eject northeastward into the Upper Midwest through the
rest of the weekend. Models suggest this system will track mainly
through southern Canada, but will leave a trailing area of surface
baroclinicity. This baroclinic zone will be a crucial focus for
the development of the next system, as another upstream shortwave
is forecast to develop and move over this area of baroclinicity,
leading to the cyclogenesis of a new surface low by the start of
Tuesday. With this cyclogenesis occurring and the associated
upper-level trough digging southeastward, the new surface low and
its attendant frontal boundaries are forecast to approach the area
for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will be possible with FROPA. However, the frontal
timing is currently forecast to be overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday, which will limit available daytime instability.
Furthermore, long-term guidance indicates the potential for
diurnally driven CI earlier on Tuesday afternoon as southeasterly
to easterly flow, around a surface high pressure center, advects
moisture rich air into, which could consume all available
atmospheric instability, thus largely negating the potential for
organized overnight convection with the front. There remains
uncertainty regarding the overall QPF and PoP with this
approaching boundary, as the long-term model suites are not in
complete agreement on timing, frontal speed, and the duration of
the FROPA. The ECMWF is notably quicker with the frontal passage,
leading to a suppressed PoP and lower QPFs compared to the GFS,
which tracks the system slower, resulting in higher PoP and QPFs.
Nonetheless, the overall trend supports an increasing potential
for precipitation toward the end of the forecast period. Overall,
the start of the forecast period will be characterized by
sustained upper-level ridging and surface high pressure.
Precipitation chances increase for Tuesday afternoon and continue
through the end of the period. High temperatures will remain in
the low to mid 80s through Tuesday, but with the approaching cold
front and increased precipitation, temperatures are forecast to
fall into the lower 70s for Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight
minimum temperatures will follow this same trend, starting in the
upper 50s to lower 60s before cooling significantly into the mid
to upper 40s for Wednesday and Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all TAF sites as
high pressure remains well in control. In general, winds will be
light and variable at around 5 kts or less through the period.
That being said, the high pressure system is moving east of the
region today, which is allowing the wind, while light, to become
predominately southerly. This in turn is allowing a minimal
amount of moisture advection, which may translate to some mid-
level clouds both this afternoon, and during the day Friday. Added
in FEW wording for tomorrow to account for this.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JMW

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion