Mill Pond, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

731
FXUS61 KOKX 261453
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1053 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area this morning. High pressure
then builds in through the first part of the weekend. A
disturbance brings a chance for rain Saturday night before a
weak front pushes through on Sunday. High pressure then builds
back in for the beginning of next week. Low pressure passes
southeast of the region mid to late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure slowly builds in behind a departing cold front.
Partly to mostly sunny into early afternoon with some later day
cu buildup in some areas. While PoPs are low, a stray shower
can`t be entirely ruled out as some weak upper level energy
shifts north of the area this afternoon. Highs today are
expected to be in the upper 70s to near 80.
Subtle mid-level ridging shifts in place tonight with weak high
pressure building in. This should provide for generally light
flow and dry conditions tonight. Lows will be in the middle 50s
to low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure should generally remain in place on Saturday
with mostly dry conditions expected, though an increase in
cloud cover into the afternoon is expected. Highs will be in the
upper 70s. An upper level trough over the Appalachians
approaches the area from the southwest late in the day. This
upper trough will weaken the surface high pressure over the area
and allow for a surface trough to advect moisture northward
into the area.
THis will bring the chance for additional showers as early as
Saturday evening. A widespread light to possibly moderate
rainfall is expected to approach from the south Saturday night,
though it`s northward extent is still fairly uncertain. The
best chance for rainfall will be for the southern coastal areas,
mainly Long Island. Generally a half inch or less of rainfall is
expected Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Showers should gradually dissipate as the weak area of low
pressure shifts east of the area and a weak front moves through.
High pressure is once again expected to begin building into the
area late Sunday and into Sunday night. Highs on Sunday will be
in the middle to upper 70s, with the cooler areas being
easternmost areas that hold onto showers and cloud cover a bit
longer.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The NBM was followed for the long term.
An upr trof over the East will be the main wx producer into the
beginning of the week. Strong high pres then builds in from Canada
for the middle of the week. At the same time, a pair of tropical
disturbances will be monitored. Please refer to the NHC for the
official fcst for the tropicals over the Atlc.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds in behind a departing cold front.
VFR. NW winds back westerly heading into early afternoon.
A hybrid sea breeze possible coastal terminals, mainly for
KBDR/KJFK/KGON. Light NW to N winds tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Sea breeze at KJFK might not occur, and if it does, timing could
be off by 1-2 hours and winds could be more backed than
currently forecast.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: Mainly VFR, chance of late day or evening showers.
Sunday and Monday: Chance of showers with MVFR conditions possible,
mainly at the NYC metro and Long Island terminals.
Tuesday: Pockets of MVFR possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels the remainder of
today and linger through at least Monday night.
Towards early Tuesday morning, ocean seas are forecast to build
to 5 ft, and higher thereafter for Tuesday into Tuesday night,
potentially up to 8 to 9 ft. There is uncertainty this far out
in time and wave heights could fluctuate by a foot or two with
subsequent forecasts. Regarding wind gusts, those too are
forecast to reach SCA levels Tuesday night, mainly on the ocean,
with otherwise, sub-SCA wind gusts during the marine long term.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current risk for local ocean beaches is moderate today.
This is due to residual onshore swell close to 4 ft and
developing more southerly flow of near 5 to 7 kts in the
afternoon.
Rip current risk for local ocean beaches on Saturday is low.
This is due to residual onshore swell close to 3 ft and light
onshore flow with more easterly component near 5 to 7 kts in the
afternoon.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC/JC
MARINE...JMC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion