Mercer, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

124
FXUS63 KDLH 012035
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
335 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend
  with some record high temperatures possible.
- Low chances for precipitation through much of the period.
- Windy conditions expected for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
High pressure was centered over northern Quebec and extended
southeastward into the Great Lakes, Mississippi Valley and
Southern Plains. Low pressure was analyzed over North Dakota
creating a pressure gradient over the Upper Midwest. Skies were
partly to mostly sunny with breezy southerly winds across the
Northland. A mesovortex was associated with an area of showers
and thunderstorms across southeastern Manitoba. Some additional
development was observed across northeastern North Dakota and
northwestern Minnesota. A cold front associated with the low
across North Dakota will move into Minnesota overnight and
weaken. A subtle shortwave aloft will also move through and may
lead to a few isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms in
our northwestern zones tonight into Thursday. Models are not in
good agreement with this activity due to the weak forcing in
place. What is more certain is unseasonably warm temperatures
spreading northward for Friday and Saturday. Normal highs for
early October are in the lower 60s and we`ll see readings in the
upper 70s to upper 80s these days. Record high temperatures will
be possible. Please see the .Climate section below for
additional information on this.
Global models keep a boundary over northeastern Minnesota for
Thursday which will keep a low chance (20-40%) for showers and a
few thunderstorms in place. There isn`t much to speak of for
forcing in place, but there is a subtle shortwave aloft.
However, broad-scale subsidence is expected with the right exit
region of the jet overhead. Friday night into Saturday will see
a warm front lift across the Northland and may bring a low
chance for a few showers and storms, mainly across the
Borderlands. Most of this activity looks to be across
northwestern Ontario. Heading into Saturday, the upper ridge
looks to start to shift to the east as low pressure over the
Dakotas becomes more organized. Models continue to slow the
progression of this low for Saturday into Sunday and continues
to be further west. This will keep the strongest forcing well to
our west and may keep dry conditions in place as this system
passes to our west and north. The best chance for any rainfall
from this system looks to be across our far northwestern zones
Sunday night. Overall, the severe weather threat appears to be
pretty low. While there will be shear and marginal instability
in place, low-level moisture will be lacking with dewpoints in
the 50s and the best forcing remaining across the Red River
Valley. PWATs will be above the 90th percentile for early
October, but without better forcing, we won`t be able to do much
with it.
The main concern for the weekend will be the breezy and dry
conditions leading to increasing fire weather conditions. A
tightening pressure gradient will set up across the region as
low pressure deepens across the Dakotas. This will lead to
gusts to 30 to 40 mph and perhaps even 50 mph at times across
the state Saturday and especially Sunday. Relative humidity
values may fall into the 30 to 40% range ahead of the cold front
Sunday. These low RH values, coupled with winds gusting to 40+
mph, may lead to near critical fire weather conditions. High
pressure will then build in for Sunday night into Monday
following the cold frontal passage. Temperatures to start the
new week will be much closer to normal. There is no strong
signal for precipitation during the early part of the week, but
if anyone sees rainfall, the best chances look to be along the
International Border with the storm track to our north.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. An
isolated showers around INL cannot be ruled out overnight, but
chances are too low to include. Southerly to southeasterly winds
may gust to around 20 knots at times this afternoon before
diminishing around sunset. A low level jet will lead to areas of
LLWS tonight at DLH, HIB and INL before ending before sunrise.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Northeasterly winds of 5 to 15 knots this afternoon will become
variable tonight at 5 to 10 knots. A few gusts to 15 knots will
remain possible from the Outer Apostles to Saxon Harbor. Winds
then remain variable at 5 to 15 knots, strongest along the South
Shore, for Thursday into Friday. Looking ahead, a period of
strong southerly to southwesterly winds with gales possible is
expected for Saturday into Sunday with a wind shift to
westerlies late Sunday as a cold front passes.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The upcoming very warm to hot period for mid-fall is creating a
forecast of some possible broken record high and warm low
temperatures in the Northland. Below are the days which have the
highest chances of multiple stations tying or breaking these
temperature records. These forecast temperatures are about 20
degrees F (highs) and about 25 degrees (warm lows) above normal
for early October. High temperatures on Saturday could see a
fair gradient across the Northland depending on where the
frontal boundary sets up with showers possibly ongoing north of
it and the very warm temperatures persist south of it. Latest
trends have the front setting up along the International Border,
which will keep the higher end of temperatures possible across
much of the region.
Record High Temperatures:
October 3: Forecast Current Records
KDLH:      77       82/2023
KINL:      80       84/2023
KBRD:      85       84/2023
KHIB:      81       83/1953
October 4:
KDLH:      82       83/1922
KINL:      82       82/2011
KBRD:      87       82/2011
KHIB:      83       78/2011
Record Warm Low Temperatures:
October 4: Forecast Current Records
KDLH:      60       58/1914
KINL:      62       60/1914
KBRD:      67       60/1914
KHIB:      59       54/1969
KASX:      60       59/1931
October 5:
KASX:      57       56/1975
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
CLIMATE...BJH

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion