Mc Intosh, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

143
FXUS63 KFGF 191723
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers today, isolated t-storms possible. Additional 0.25 to
  0.75 inch rainfall next 24 hours, then shower chances
  diminishing over the weekend. Dry next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Main area of showers extending along and just west of the Red
River and rotating slowly west. However, more showers and even a
few thunderstorms upstream across central and northwest MN so
still plenty of rain potential for the afternoon. CAMs have most
of this activity wrapping around the low centered to our south
into this evening. Eventually should see most of the rain shift
into the MN side, but very slowly and not until tomorrow night.
UPDATE
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Adjusted POPs a bit for current radar trends as areas of rain
and showers continue to rotate up from the south as low pressure
continues to our southwest. Will remain across our area this
morning before becoming a bit more showery this evening.
UPDATE
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
More solid area of rain showers is moving north-northwest into
the RRV as expected. So the high pops continue. Other showers
with pockets of heavier rain into the Devils Lake basin and in
north central MN. So idea of highest chc of rain this morning is
indeed working out.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...Synopsis...
Forecast is progressing as anticipated early this morning. Upper
low is in northwest SD with a 500 mb vort in western Missouri.
Feed of deeper moisture extends from eastern Missouri northwest
across Iowa into Minnesota and there is a 40 kt 700 mb jet
involved as well. This feed of deeper moisture and mid level jet
will aid in an increase in shower coverage thru the morning
before diminishing this aftn. This is what was shown 24 hours
ago with an increase in coverage of showers arriving late Thu
night and lasting thru early Friday afternoon. Thus will
maintain the categorical pops for most areas thru 18z then went
close to model blend pops which shows chances of rain
diminishing mid to late afternoon into this evening. Additional
rain amounts 12z Fri to 12z Sat look to be in the 0.25 to 0.75
inch range. Isolated thunderstorms possible as well, but with
main upper low forecast to drop more southeast thru today and
tonight feel conditions less favorable for any funnels. Sfc low
however is present in east central SD near Huron and this will
be near the ND/SD/MN border by late today.
500 mb low and trough remains over Minnesota and eastern ND
Saturday but moisture feed is much less into the system. But
enough for continued scattered showers. Sunday will see upper
wave shift a bit more east with showers limited to east of the
Red River in MN then Monday will see clearing progress east thru
the entire area.
A much needed prolonged dry period is in store from Monday thru
Saturday across the area, as next in our series of upper lows
this time develops over the central or southern Plains with flat
upper ridge, 500 mb high heights, building north of upper low
across the area and south central Canada.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
IFR to MVFR conditions at all TAF sites with showers and stratus
rotating around low pressure centered to our south. A mix of
VCSH, light rain, and BR through most of the afternoon and into
the evening. Some LIFR conditions at a few spots, but at this
point will keep more cloud cover and less visibility
restriction at most of the airports. Winds will shift around
from an east to northeasterly direction to more north to
northwest by the end of the period, but remain below 10 kts in
speed.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Riddle/JR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion