Mc Intire, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

759
FXUS63 KARX 210538
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1238 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with
  localized heavy rain at times.
- Storm chances continue Monday with concerns for strong storms
  affecting the central CONUS.
- Temperatures stay near normal with highs in the low to mid 70s
  through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Periodic Showers and Storms Through the Weekend:
The upper level low that has been giving us showers and storms over
the last few days is gradually moving off to the northeast.
Currently, the low is situated over over the CWA. With this location
and increasing low level lapse rates, the best instability will
build in central Wisconsin. While some instability builds in
southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa, the higher values (1000 to
1500 J/kg of MLCAPE) are located in central Wisconsin. As a result,
scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. With the upper level low overhead, there may be some
potential for some funnels to form this afternoon with light
southerly winds in the lowest 10 to 15kft. The one caveat to this is
that a boundary would need to be present to help increase the funnel
potential. Another shortwave moves down Sunday afternoon increasing
shower and storm potential later Sunday afternoon into the overnight
period. Overall rain amounts through the weekend are generally less
than 0.4 inches. Locally higher amounts of up to 1 inch will be
possible especially in central Wisconsin and in portions of southern
Minnesota.
Storm Potential Next Week:
A shortwave moves into the Upper Midwest as a frontal boundary sits
near the Upper Midwest River Valley. This will allow instability to
build in during the afternoon. While low level shear is decent (25
to 30 kts), low level lapse rates are not impressive, mostly around
6 C/km. Better instability and forcing remains to the south of the
CWA. Despite this, machine learning severe probabilities give a 5 to
15% chance for severe weather to occur, mainly south of I-90. This
will be something to watch as we get through the weekend.
For the rest of the week, ensemble guidance continues to show a
trough digging down into the central CONUS. Over the past couple of
days, ensembles have brought this trough further south,
lowering our precipitation chances (15 to 25%) to just northeast
Iowa and southern Wisconsin. If this trend continues a mostly
dry week could occur. Temperatures over the next 7 days are
staying mainly in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Another night of flight rules restrictions due to stratus/fog is
expected, particularly northeast of a EAU-DLL line and across
NE IA and far SW WI. Uncertainty focuses on how much of the area
will be affected and if RST/LSE will be impacted. While enough
signal is seen in aviation-focused guidance that RST may see a
brief period of IFR/LIFR ceilings, with stratus largely not
having begun to form in E IA yet, have elected to cover the
possiblity with a short TEMPO group. At LSE, brief fog may occur
if clouds can clear around sunrise. For the day Sunday,
concerns once again focus on TS, but the probability is a bit
lower than yesterday (closer to 20-25%). Probability increases
after 00z but confidence in exact timing is low. Have therefore
left thunder out of these TAFs with a view toward introduction
with the 12z cycle.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Ferguson

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion