Mc Donald, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

478
FXUS63 KGLD 011651
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1051 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and isolated storms may continue through the
  afternoon for northern portions of the forecast area.
- Thursday morning will likely see some fog over the
  northeastern portions of the area.
- Above normal temperatures are forecast to continue into the
  start of the weekend with Friday looking to be the warmest day
  at this time with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
- Gusty to windy conditions are forecast to return Thursday
  afternoon through Saturday ahead of a cold front.
  Precipitation chances may increase with and behind the front.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1224 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Early this morning, a low-level low pressure system will be moving
across the southern CWA. This will eventually weaken the winds, but
may also spark of some storms across the eastern and far northern
CWA between 8-15Z. These storms will have decent low-level shear as
0-1 shear will likely be around 20 kts. However, this is the
majority of the shear and the 0-0.5 km height will be well capped.
The majority of the instability will be above 2.5 km, where little
shear will be. This minimizes the potential for severe weather. This
convection should be clear of the area by 12-15Z.
There is also a 10% chance additional precipitation will occur along
the trough axis in the north central CWA around 10-13Z, there`s not
much notable about this precipitation. Lows are expected to cool
into the 50s across the area, although depending on how fast clouds
form, the eastern CWA may remain in the low 60s.
Today, once the morning precipitation clears the area, temperatures
will climb into the low to mid 80s, similar to yesterday. The big
difference today will be the winds will be notable weaker as the low
remains close/over the CWA. There is a 10% chance some isolated
showers fire off this afternoon near Gove, Sheridan, or Logan
counties and move east. These would fire off the weak cold front
that will slow to a crawl during the day. Once again, shear and
instability will be weak, as will forcing as the cold front will be
pretty weak.
Tonight, as the low leaves the area, a low-level high pressure
system will move over the northern CWA. This will work to clear the
skies and weaken the winds even more, allowing temperatures to cool
into the low to mid 50s. Additionally, this will probably allow at
least patchy fog to form. We cannot rule out dense fog, but
confidence for nuisance fog forming is about 75%.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Our above average temperatures continues to start the extended
period as ridging remains in place over the area and a trough
develops over the western CONUS. High temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s are forecast, but the warmest day looks to be on
Friday as the effects of the trough are further felt as the
winds turn to the SW as highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are
forecast. Breezy to gusty winds are forecast to develop during
the afternoon Thursday and continue into Friday as 850mb and
700mb wind fields increase. Wind gusts of 30-45 mph are
currently on the table with the eastern portion of the area
currently favored to be on the windier side of things as the
850mb jet is currently forecast to be strongest on that side of
the CWA. May need to keep an eye on some fire weather conditions
as well especially for the Colorado counties as RH values are
currently forecast to fall into the upper teens to low 20s. I
would not be overly surprised RH and dew points fall a little
more due to the potential for deep mixing and the transportation
down of drier air and slightly windier conditions.
Gusty to windy conditions are forecast to continue into the day
Saturday as well but may be slightly stronger than Friday. 06Z
run of the ECMWF shows a 40-50 knot 700mb jet developing and if
enough mixing can occur then wind gusts of 50-60 mph are
possible. Confidence in 60+ mph wind gusts is only around 10-20%
at this time. Again will need to keep an eye on fire weather
conditions as well, a caveat may be that RH may be to high as
some subtle moisture advection looks to occur. A strong cold
front is currently forecast to move through during the evening
hours on Saturday; however it may move through quicker as cold
fronts typically do so and it is currently the outlier looking
at ECMWF ensemble members. However, do think that the quicker
solution will become the norm as the ECMWF AI which typically
handles front timing and positioning the best has trended about
6 hours quicker from the 06z to the 12Z run. Rainfall may also
occur along or just behind the front as well as a decent number
of ECMWF ensemble members show precipitation in the 6 hourly qpf
forecasts so confidence is increasing in that. Severe weather
can`t be completely ruled out either with this. Highs in the 60s
to 70s are currently forecast Sunday through the end of the
extended period. Another reinforcing cold front early in the
work week may lead to some frost concerns as some guidance shows
a surface high in place across the area around 12Z Tuesday
which would support optimal radiational cooling potential.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1043 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A slow moving surface just to the south of the GLD terminal is
leading to backing winds for GLD as they are forecast to
eventually become more easterly and then southerly by the end
of the period. This low has also been leading to stronger lift
than previously anticipated with scattered showers and isolated
storms across northern and eastern portions of the area. Have
introduced a PROB30 for MCK for this afternoon as the potential
is increasing in impacts to the terminal from the showers and
storms; brief heavy rainfall would be the main concern if the
terminal were to be impacted. Continuing to watch for fog
potential overnight with MCK looking to be the most favorable at
this time. The signal has decreased some from yesterday so
confidence isn`t as high in MVFR or lower conditions so opted to
leave out for now. Did include a 6sm in the TAF as most likely
low dew point depressions will drop visibility some. Not
anticipating any fog at this time for GLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion