Mc Cracken, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

102
FXUS63 KDDC 040400
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong south winds Saturday, with gusts to near 45 mph during
  the afternoon.
- Cold front arrives Sunday night, with scattered thunderstorms
  favoring the northeast zones. Some storms may produce
  marginally severe wind gusts and hail.
- Much cooler air arrives Monday and Tuesday with scattered
  showers and thunderstorms continuing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
WV imagery indicates ridging aloft shifting slowly east
through the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a closed upper low
within a larger scale trough axis is transitioning east through
Northern California into the Great Basin. Near the surface, a
lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern
Colorado.
An ongoing dry pattern will continue early in the period
as the SREF indicates the upper level ridge exiting eastward
out of the Central Plains tonight while the approaching trough
axis moves farther east through Utah into western Colorado by
mid-day Saturday. Despite prevailing low level southerlies
helping reinforce pooling moisture across central and much of
southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints holding in the upper
50s(F)/near 60F, instability will remain fairly limited keeping
precip chances at bay through late Saturday afternoon. There are
very minimal thunderstorm chances (90% probability of
temperatures exceeding 80F with a 60-80% probability of an
exceedance of 85F in extreme southwest Kansas. As a result,
widespread 80s(F) remains likely. Similar temperatures are
forecast Sunday with an approaching cold front slowing before
stalling out somewhere generally across west central Kansas into
northern southwest Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF period, but strong winds
will impact aviation operations through Saturday. Included low
level wind shear in all TAFs through 12z Sat, with a strong low
level jet in progress. South winds will remain elevated through
sunrise. After 15z Sat, strong south winds are expected at all
airports, gusting 35-37 kts. The strongest south winds can be
expected during the 21z Sat - 00z Sun time frame. Another strong
low level jet is forecast Saturday night, and included LLWS
again after 03z Sun.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion