Mc Cloud, California Weather Forecast Discussion

196
FXUS66 KMFR 291746
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1046 AM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...Updated AVIATION discussion for 18Z TAFs...
.DISCUSSION...Radar is showing precipitation over the marine
waters with some light returns in portions of Douglas County. A
front will reach the coast early this morning, then move onshore
west of the Cascades during the morning. Precipitation will also
move inland with most of the rainfall likely to be along the
coast, coastal mountains and Cascades. Ahead of the front moderate
to strong south winds are likely in the Shasta Valley and a wind
advisory remain in affect. Winds in the Shasta Valley will shift
to the west and diminish later this afternoon. Meanwhile, moderate
to strong winds are expected for portions of the eastside and a
wind advisory remains in effect. Please see NPWMFR for more
details.
East of the Cascades, it will be windy with precipitation
increasing later in the afternoon, with most centered in Modoc
and Lake County, even then rainfall amounts will be lighter
compared to the Cascades west.
A very brief break between systems tonight into Tuesday morning
will be followed by the second front later Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Compared to the first front, the model trend has been for a
more dramatic weakening of this front as it moves inland. Still
enough for gusty southerly winds along the coast, and Shasta
Valley.
Showers are expected on Wednesday as the trough shifts inland,
with activity mainly from the coast to the Cascades. When all is
said and done, 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected during the first
half of the week for the coast, a quarter of an inch to an inch
elsewhere on the west side, and up to a quarter of an inch on the
east side.
Clouds and cool temperatures persist on Thursday as the upper
trough remains over the region, but additional showers will be
light and few.
Dry weather and a modest warming trend is likely to follow with
weak ridging on Friday, a weak shortwave trough on Saturday, then
the beginning of a rex block pattern early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...29/18Z TAFs...Rainfall is bringing MVFR to IFR levels to
coastal areas as a cold front passes over. As the front moves
eastward, VFR to MVFR levels are expected to return to the coast.
Inland areas are generally expected to remain at VFR levels,
although rainfall may locally lower ceilings and visibilities as
well as obscure elevated terrain. Rainfall is more likely west of
the Cascades, although light rainfall is possible east of the
Cascades.
Gusty winds continue over elevated terrain and in the Shasta Valley
at the start of the TAF period. Klamath Falls may see wind gusts
approaching 30 mph. These winds will decrease through the afternoon
and evening but will start to rebuild near the end of the TAF
period. -TAD
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Monday, September 29, 2025...Very steep
and hazardous seas with gale gusts will continue into early this
morning, then both winds and seas will diminish towards mid morning
as the front moves onshore.
After a brief break, south winds will increase again as the next
front approaches the waters overnight tonight.
A Gale Watch remains in effect Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening,
and will likely be upgraded to a warning later this morning or this
afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish Tuesday night, with moderate
southwest winds to continue through Wednesday. -Petrucelli
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ024-030-031.
CA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this
     morning for PZZ350-356.
Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning until 8 AM PDT this morning for PZZ370-376.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion