Mc Camey, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

591
FXUS64 KMAF 161901
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
201 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
- Low to medium (10-40%) shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday
  through Saturday, mainly in the higher terrain and northern
  Permian Basin. At the moment, the highest chances of rain are
  forecast to be Thursday afternoon before chances (10-30%)
  decrease again late week and into the weekend.
- Highs remain in the upper 80s and low 90s, rising into the low-
  to- mid 90s for most by the end of the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
At present, our region resides below northwesterly flow aloft as a
ridge out of Mexico looms overhead. The influence of this feature
shall be limited by an upper-level trough currently transversing
from the Rockies into the Great Plains. With relatively weak ridging
in place, temperatures hover slightly above normal and shower/storm
development stay limited. Daytime heating and upslope flow has
helped trigger a few showers/storms near the western reaches of our
area. We`re expecting isolated activity to continue into early this
evening near the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. Tonight,
temperatures dip into the 60s for most, then warm into the 80s to
low 90s Wednesday afternoon. The base of the aforementioned trough
makes an approach to the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and
evening, sending a cold front down with it. Lift associated with the
trough and approaching front will provide sufficient instability to
aid in shower/storm development during this time frame. Rain chances
Wednesday afternoon range between 10-40% over much of southeast
New Mexico down toward the Guadalupe Mountains. Temperatures
Wednesday night drop into the 60s.
Lopez
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
The cold front mentioned in the short term period finally drops into
our region Thursday into Friday. The primary impact of this system
will be an increase in rain chances. Low to medium (10-40%) rain
chances are forecast for most of the region Thursday afternoon. The
highest probability of seeing rainfall Thursday afternoon will be
over southeast New Mexico, nearest the frontal boundary. Thursday
evening, the focus for storm development shifts toward the Permian
Basin, although odds remain low (10-30%). Temperatures Thursday
generally warm into the 80s, with a few locations topping out in the
low 90s.
Friday, the trough begins to lift northward and is replaced by an
upper-level ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. The ridge
gradually builds into the Desert Southwest through early next week.
Shortwave impulses passing along the northern edge of the ridge keep
low (10-20%) rain chances in the forecast for many Friday through
Sunday. Highs in the 90s expand in coverage each afternoon through
Sunday. Troughing starts to take shape in the upper levels above us
Monday heading into Tuesday, allowing temperatures to taper down a a
couple of degrees and maintaining at least low rain chances in the
forecast, especially over the eastern portions of our region.
Lopez
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the period. An isolated
shower/storm may develop later this afternoon in the vicinity of
CNM and HOB, though PROB30s have been left out due to very low
coverage. Otherwise, occasionally breezy south and southeast
winds are expected at most sites.
Lopez
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 65  86  65  84 /   0  20  10  30
Dryden                   67  90  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            65  89  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           62  78  62  77 /  10  20  10  40
Hobbs                    63  84  62  84 /   0  10   0  30
Marfa                    56  81  57  82 /   0  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     67  88  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   66  86  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     66  88  65  88 /   0   0   0  20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...95

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion