Maurin, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

957
FXUS64 KEWX 191118
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
618 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued warm through the weekend with a few isolated showers and
storms possible.
- High forecast uncertainty for rain chances next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Relatively quiet conditions continue across South Central Texas in
the short term period. Overall, expect dry conditions through
Saturday though low chances do exist for a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening as we have seen previous days.
Near to above normal high temperatures continue each afternoon from
the upper 80s to mid 90s. Lows range from the mid 60s to low
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Southeasterly flow continues Sunday bringing increased moisture
allowing for low rain chances over the coastal plains approaching
the I-35 corridor during the afternoon and evening. Forecast
uncertainty remains high for next week as models struggle with the
track of an upper level low. The GFS and its ensemble are trending
towards a drier solution with upper ridging moving east over South
Central Texas. The ECMWF continues some hope for rain with ridging
remaining to the west and an upper low moving over the southern
Plains Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a cold front towards the
area. With poor model agreement, precipitation chances have
been lowered for the early to mid-week timeframe and remain
below 50 percent. Low NBM rain chances remain in the forecast
beyond Wednesday and with little agreement in the overall
synoptic pattern late next week felt no reason to remove them
just yet. Temperatures remain relatively steady in the extended
forecast with near or above normal highs each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
There are some MVFR level clouds moving through the Del Rio and
San Antonio areas. The clouds out west look like they may develop
into a ceiling at DRT at least intermittently for the next couple
of hours. The clouds in the San Antonio area don`t look like they
will last very long. We will keep SAT and SSF VFR. After this
brief morning cloudiness, all terminals will be VFR for the rest
of the period. Wind will increase to 5-10 kts from the southeast
by around noon. There is a less than 20% chance for showers or
thunderstorms this afternoon around Austin.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  71  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  70  95  71 /  10   0  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  69  95  71 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            92  69  92  71 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           94  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             94  68  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  68  96  71 /  10   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  69  94  71 /  20   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  72  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...05

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion