Masterson, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

256
FXUS64 KAMA 021055
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
555 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Warm and dry conditions are favored to continue across the
  Panhandles through at least this weekend with highs in the 80s
  to lower 90s.
- A system is expected to brush across the Northern Panhandles
  Sunday inviting a 10 to 20% chance for storms.
- Confidence is low, but the potential for temperatures near or
  slightly below average along with rain chances may return to the
  Panhandles early to the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
As of early this morning latest surface analysis has kept a weak
surface boundary present over the Central Panhandles. While
chances are less than 5%, there are few CAMs that have seen a few
showers start off this boundary this afternoon with potential to
repeat again Friday. However, most of these same CAMs are also
producing soundings that would suggest that these showers may not
produce rainfall that actually make it to the ground. Instead, the
Panhandles may see more virga then anything, which could lead to
isolated gusty outflow winds during both afternoons. Otherwise,
look for the upper-level ridge to hold with a majority of the
Panhandles staying dry outside of these low chances. Meanwhile,
afternoon high temperatures are looking stay in the upper 80s to
low 90s through Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Dry weather looks to start off the weekend for the Panhandles as
model agreement sees the upper-level ridge hold through Saturday.
However, most models expect this ridge to begin to exit late that
night as a building trough begins to progress eastward from
Southern Nevada. Currently present trends for this trough have it
take a more northerly track across Colorado, which leaves only the
Northern Panhandles with 10 to 20% chance of showers Sunday.
Chance for precipitation do look to improve as we move into the
new week with models seeing a secondary trough push into the
Pacific Northwest as a upper-level high pressure system builds
across the Southern Untied States. While this pattern will leave
us a bit stagnate in the upper-levels Monday, it will also invite
moisture from the gulf to return with some models seeing PWAT
values rise back above one inch. Added to this moisture will be
the potential for a short-wave disturbance to move across the
Panhandles and give us a lifting mechanism. However, models are
still a bit uncertain on the placement and strengthen of the
short-wave with current guidance only suggesting around a 20 to
30% chance of storms for Monday. From here models only struggle
more as the try to decide on the progression of the trough
eastward through the middle of next week. At this time the NBM is
still in favor or some activity making its way into the Panhandles
Tuesday, but these chances are only around 20 to 40%. Regardless
the progression of the low will likely see temperature cool
through next week with afternoon highs in the 80s to 90s this
weekend dropping into the 70s by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions are expected through at least the next 24 hours.
Winds will generally stay at around 10 kts or less with varying
wind directions ranging from southwesterly to southeasterly.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...52

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion