Manson, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

220
FXUS62 KRAH 281050
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
650 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface front over the Coastal Plain will drift slowly
southeast this morning, before stalling and holding near the
Carolina coast this afternoon through tonight. Meanwhile, an upper
level trough to our northwest will weaken and lift northeast into
the Mid-Atlantic region today. A tropical cyclone near northeast
Cuba is expected to drift north-northwest for the next few days,
staying offshore as it tracks east of the Florida and Southeast
coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Sunday...
* Dry weather for most today, with rain chances confined to our far
  southeast, and more clouds E than W.
* Skies will trend overcast areawide tonight with increasing rain
  chance from SE to NW.
The old surface front is holding over the NC Coastal Plain as of the
latest surface analysis. While considerable low level moisture will
remain in place today (confirmed by areas of low clouds now
developing over NC), we`re under a zone of dry air aloft as seen on
GOES layer WV imagery, between areas of higher moisture to our NW
(with the dampening mid level low/trough that will weaken further
and lift into the Mid Atlantic region today) and to our E (spreading
N and NNW from the Bahamas and TD9 across the NC coast). The low
clouds will slowly lift and break up this morning, but we should
still retain sct-bkn clouds today, greater over/E of I-95, within
the deeper moisture. Most models and CAMs keep any chances for rain
confined to the far SE CWA, near the frontal zone as it drifts to
the ESE today, with added forcing by passage of weak mid level
vorticity centers along coastal NC. Will keep low chances in that
area today, with dry conditions elsewhere. Expect more clouds than
sun along and E of Hwy 1, with the Triad likely seeing partial
sunshine for a good part of the day. Highs should be in the mid 70s
to lower 80s.
By tonight, the weak mid level trough to our NW will continue to
shear SW to NE over the western Carolinas, as stronger mid level
ridging N of Bermuda builds westward into eastern and central NC.
This will push the band of higher PW and stream of weak
perturbations aloft back westward into our area, while the
combination of a tightening MSLP gradient (due to the strong surface
high centered over the Great Lakes building in from the N) topped
just above by strengthening easterly/onshore flow evident at 850 mb
yields increasingly expansive and deepening moist isentropic upglide
over the CWA. Will spread chance pops WNW toward the Hwy 1 corridor
in the evening, then areawide overnight, with the best coverage
likely to be in the southern half where the strongest upglide should
be situated. Expect lows mostly in the mid-upper 60s. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...
* A cloudy and gray day expected with light rain likely, especially
  over the S and E.
As the surface high to our N continues to drift E to the E Great
Lakes and Northeast states while nosing S into NC, the tightening
MSLP gradient between it and both TD9 (likely to be Imelda by that
time) and Hurricane Humberto will keep us in a strong flow from the
NE and E through the low and mid levels Mon/Mon night. This deep
influx of moisture and overrunning (including a strong easterly 850-
700 mb jet) atop the cool surface high will result in a thick
overcast with areas of rain spreading inland into central NC. Will
carry a period of likely pops across the entire area, and if trends
hold, we may need categorical chances especially over the S.
Incoming PWs are projected to be over 150% of normal, in the 1.75-
2.25" range, so some pockets of heavy downpours are likely,
particularly in the Sandhills and S Coastal Plain. Any brief heavy
rain could pose a problem for more urban cities and towns, however
these areas have been so dry of late, this steady moderate rain may
be a welcomed sight. The above-normal rain chances should extend
through Mon night, with widespread amounts of one-half to one inch
likely, with isolated higher totals. Expect a below-normal diurnal
temp range, with highs of 70-76 and lows Mon night of 62-69. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...
* Confidence is high that the center of TD9 will stay well south of
  central NC.
* Rich tropical moisture north of TD9 will bring mostly beneficial
  steady light/moderate rain to the area Tuesday with a deceasing
  risk for flash flooding.
Latest track for TD9, likely becoming TS Imelda within the next 12
hours, continues the trend in model guidance over the past 36 hours
of a slower forward motion and earlier eastward turn expected on
Tues. Overall, confidence remains high on its track through Mon
evening, but thereafter model guidance varies greatly as its forward
motion is expected to slow to a crawl, briefly stall, and then kick
eastward. By Tuesday afternoon, 12z multi-model ensemble suggest the
center could still be anywhere from just off the SC coast to
northeast of the central Bahamas (which is distance of roughly 500
miles). Thankfully for central NC, confidence remains high that the
center of TD9 will stay well south of central NC.
Tuesday will likely feature thick overcast, periods of rain, and a
stout northeasterly wind of 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
throughout much of the daylight hours. Rich tropical moisture (PWAT
> 90th percentile) well north of the center of TD9 will still be in
place over the southern Mid-Atlantic. Deep forcing for ascent with
central NC favorably positioned within broad divergence aloft and
waves of deep WAA from 925-700mb and moist isentropic ascent (along
the 300-315K surface) across the forecast region. This will likely
favor a steady rain over the area for much of the day Tues before
gradually tapering off overnight. Available 18z and 00z guidance
suggests instability will be greatly limited and result in mostly
stratiform rain and low rain rates. Any flooding risk would mostly
be tied to the track of TD9 and its associated heavier rain bands,
but with the trend of farther south and east of the Carolina coast,
this threat appears to be decreasing. Beneficial rainfall totals in
24 hours until 12z Wed will range from 0.25" near the VA/NC border
to around 1" closer to the NC/SC border.
Wednesday through Saturday: Multi-model ensemble approach suggests
that Canadian high pressure will build across Ontario and Quebec and
settle through the Northeast and over the Mid-Atlantic into the
weekend. This will likely result in a prolonged period of dry and
seasonable temperatures with persistent northeasterly flow. This is
highly dependent on the track of TD9 through mid-week when
confidence in its position is incredibly low. The 12z multi-model
low position forecast suggest TD9 could be as far west as the FL/GA
coast, as far north as just off the NC coast, as far south as the
northern Bahamas or as far east as Bermuda Wed afternoon (nearly
275,000 square miles of uncertainty). A farther west position could
result in unsettled conditions through late week, but confidence is
low on this solution.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 650 AM Sunday...
Areas of sct-bkn IFR conditions will dominate through 13z-15z, after
which time cigs will slowly lift with some holes appearing, and VFR
cigs should prevail after 17z-19z (lifting last at RWI). There is a
chance for showers in the southeast (FAY) 18z-23z, but the
probability is low, and the other TAF sites should stay generally
dry through this evening. We should see redevelopment of MVFR to IFR
cigs spreading E to W after 07z. Surface winds will light through
mid morning then around 8-12 kts from the NE thereafter.
Looking beyond 12z Mon, sub-VFR stratus is expected to dominate well
into Tue with periods of sub-VFR vsbys in steady rain and a brisk
surface wind from the NE. Some improvement back to VFR is possible
especially in the NE (RDU/RWI) late Tue through Tue night.
Thereafter, central NC terminal conditions will greatly depend on
the development and path of current TD Nine, as it is expected to
drift to the NNW over the next several days, holding offshore but
perhaps approaching the Carolina coast midweek. Aviation interests
are encouraged to keep up with the latest information and updates
from the NHC for the next several days. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion