Makawao, Hawaii Weather Forecast Discussion

648
FXHW60 PHFO 211314
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
314 AM HST Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades and an upper level low will continue to keep some
showers around through the morning hours. Trades will taper
slightly as incoming showers continue to impact windward slopes
Monday and Tuesday. Drier conditions expected through the rest of
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Satellite and radar imagery show scattered showers continuing to
move across the islands and surrounding waters. Low clouds are
riding in on the trades impacting mostly windward locations. An
upper low moving over the islands will create slightly unstable
conditions to enhance the showers through the rest of this
morning. Conditions will slowly improve with showers focusing
along windward and mauka slopes through Monday.
Conditions will slowly improve with scattered showers focusing
along windward and mauka slopes through Tuesday. Drier conditions
expected Wednesday with isolated showers once again impacting
windward and mauka areas. Trades will taper off due to
disturbances moving across the northeast Pacific. Long range
guidance shows a low developing northeast of the state by the end
of the week, but confidence is too low to determine what, if any
impacts there will be to the islands.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy trades will persist for the next several days.
Low cigs and SHRA are possible along windward and mauka areas.
MVFR conds likely in SHRA otherwise VFR should prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc along windward portions
of Kauai to Maui as well as windward Big Island.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod low level turb lee of island
terrain.
&&
.MARINE...
A high pressure ridge north of Hawaii will maintain moderate to
locally strong trade winds through this afternoon. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy waters
around the Big Island and Maui. Trades will gradually ease
starting tonight as the ridge weakens, and the SCA will be
dropped by Monday. Trades should remain in the moderate to locally
fresh range Tuesday and Wednesday. A developing low pressure
northeast of the islands on Thursday and Friday will likely
weaken local winds and may cause light variable winds near the
islands.
A pair of south-southwest swells are due this week. Expect south
shore surf to peak around seasonal average this morning, then
decline through the afternoon and into Monday. A smaller south-
southwest swell may build on Tuesday and peak on Wednesday.
Small surf will prevail along north facing shores through
Wednesday, mainly from northwest swell. A sharp trough northeast
of Hawaii will likely generate a short period north-northeast
swell that will reach the islands on Thursday. This swell could
produce moderate size surf by Friday.
East facing shores will experience near seasonal average surf
through Sunday due to short period trade wind swell. Surf along
east facing shores will gradually decline Monday through
Wednesday, followed by a potential increase on Thursday from the
above mentioned source out of the north-northeast.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy trades and an upper level low will continue scattered
showers across the island chain. Trades are expected to begin to
taper off through the rest of the week. Any showers that remain
will be focused of windward and mauka locations. Inversion heights
are expected to be around 7000 to 8000ft.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Walsh
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Bohlin
FIRE WEATHER...Walsh

NWS HFO Office Area Forecast Discussion