Maize, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

943
FXUS63 KICT 171740
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periodic scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms early
  this morning through Thursday night areawide.
- Potential for a continued off-and-on active pattern this
  weekend through early to mid next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
PRECIPITATION:
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A deep upper trough approaching
slowly from the west will support off-and-on scattered to numerous
showers/thunderstorms across the region today through Thursday
night. Thinking activity will be most widespread/numerous this
morning over central Kansas, and again tonight through Thursday
evening areawide. While a handful of marginally severe thunderstorms
are possible throughout this time period (especially during the
mid/late afternoon through evening hours), most activity should
remain below severe levels. Locally heavy rainfall is possible as
well, which could support isolated flooding concerns. Model
consensus supports widespread rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inches through Thursday night, with localized 1-2+ inch amounts
possible.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...While there remains
quite a bit of uncertainty, deterministic consensus supports a
continued off-and-on active pattern this weekend through early to
mid next week, as various shortwaves progress over the region within
progressive west-northwest flow aloft. Stay tuned as we refine
forecast details in the coming days.
TEMPERATURES:
Seasonably warm temperatures look to persist today, with forecast
highs in the low 80s to low 90s, warmest over far southeast Kansas.
By Thursday, increased precipitation chances and decreasing
atmospheric thickness will support a slight cool down, with many
locations in the 70s to low 80s for daytime highs. By the weekend,
temperatures should get back to seasonal normals in the 80s, as both
thickness and southerly flow increase across Mid-America.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms continue to make their way
through the area early this afternoon. These should remain high-
based but may briefly result in MVFR visibilities due to heavy
rainfall at ICT and HUT.
After a brief lull in activity later this afternoon, shower and
thunderstorm coverage is expected to return after 00Z in south
central KS and around 05-06Z in central KS. Still a little unclear
where these will initiate so decided to keep as PROB30s for now at
all sites. Rain chances are anticipated to remain throughout the
night and to the end of the period, so decided to introduce VCSH
following the PROB30 groups. Could also see thunder after 12Z but
confidence in location is too low for a mention at any site at this
time.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JWK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion