598 FXUS64 KCRP 251117 AFDCRPArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 617 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 609 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- Showers/storms move through this morning; capable of 1-2 inches of rainfall, with high amounts approaching 3-4 inches.
- More seasonable temperatures remain through the forecast period.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The long anticipated "cold" front is sagging into South Texas as we speak with the majority of showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the main front. A lot this morning`s activity has been driven by the previous day`s outflow boundary interactions and the plenty of CAPE/PWATs these storms have been able to tap into. As the forecasts before today have indicated, showers/thunderstorms have been able to efficiently wring out a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall. At the same time, some of the storms have been slow-moving which have allowed the higher end rainfall amounts to approach the 3-4 inches for totals. Given this, this event has mostly transitioned into a hydrological risk. That said, isolated wind gusts approaching 50 mph are still possible, but the 00Z HREF run showed most members keeping wind gusts severe (
NWS crp Office Area Forecast Discussion