Loxley, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

721
FXUS64 KMOB 052020
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
320 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
We received a mid-afternoon report from the Orange Beach Life
Guards that the surf heights are still above 5 feet. An earlier
surf height report from the Pensacola Beach Life Guards had
heights of 4-5 feet. Higher winds from the band of convection is
likely keeping the breakers in the advisory range. Therefore, we
went ahead and extending the High Surf Advisory until 4 AM Monday
morning. As mentioned earlier, the High Rip Current Risk has been
extended through Tuesday night as breaker heights will still be in
the 2-4 foot range. The combination of the high breaker heights
and HIGH rip current risk will result in dangerous swimming and
surfing conditions along our beaches through Tuesday. /22
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
A weak upper trough over western Louisiana and eastern Texas will
continue to slowly drift westward and get absorb by a larger upper
trough over the western US. A weak upper ridge will then build
over the Deep South and northern Gulf from the east Monday
afternoon through Tuesday as the long wave trough passes over the
Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Tuesday/Tuesday night. A couple
of bands of rain along the eastern periphery of the upper trough
will continue to move northward over the forecast area tonight
into Monday, mainly affecting our coastal communities. The tight
surface pressure gradient across our area will keep easterly winds
elevated through this afternoon, especially for our coastal
communities. These winds will then decrease tonight and Monday as
the ridge weakens. We will then see a diurnal pattern emerge on
Tuesday through midweek with daytime isolated to scattered showers
and storms in the forecast on Tuesday (mainly south of US Highway
84) followed isolated showers and a storm or two on Wednesday. An
upper shortwave is expected to form Wednesday afternoon,
generally over Missouri, and move southeastward over our region on
Thursday. This will send an associated weak cold front into our
area that could become a focus for an increase in showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. The GFS is particularly strong
with this, so we decided to go slightly above the NBM pops and
introduce a chance of showers and storms across south-central
Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle Thursday afternoon. We
may need to increase these PoPs further as we get closer to the
event. Dry conditions should then prevail through the remainder of
the forecast.
Beach Forecast: The High Surf Advisory for large breaking waves
of 4 to 5 feet in the surf zone will be allowed to expire at 6 PM
this evening as breakers continue to very slowly decrease.
However, the High Rip Current Risk has been extended through
Tuesday night as breaker heights will still be in the 2-4 foot
range. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Rain is beginning to move into portions of southwest Alabama and
the western Florida Panhandle this afternoon, which is helping to
temporarily reduce visibilities down to IFR or lower in some
spots. This rain will continue to spread north throughout the
afternoon hours, with coverage decreasing by the evening hours.
Outside of rainfall, MVFR ceilings are in place across much of the
local area. Ceilings may briefly improve to VFR this evening,
before lowering back down to MVFR by the overnight hours. Easterly
winds of around 10 knots, with gusts to around 20 knots, will
continue through the period. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf through 1 PM
Monday as strong easterly to southeasterly flow persists. Seas
will continue to range from 6 to 9 feet for the offshore waters.
Small craft should exercise caution over all bays and sounds
through this afternoon due to a moderate easterly flow. Winds
gradually decrease Monday afternoon with seas subsiding. A light
to moderate mainly easterly flow will follow through Thursday, and
could occasionally be strong over the Gulf later this week. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  83  70  87  70  89  70  87 /  60  50  20  30  10  20  10  20
Pensacola   73  84  72  86  73  88  73  87 /  70  50  10  20   0  20  10  20
Destin      72  85  72  86  73  87  73  85 /  50  50  10  20   0  20  10  20
Evergreen   69  86  68  89  68  90  66  87 /  40  40  20  10   0  20  10  30
Waynesboro  68  83  68  86  69  88  66  85 /  60  50  20  20  10  20   0  10
Camden      68  84  67  88  67  88  67  85 /  40  40  20  10  10  20  10  20
Crestview   70  86  69  87  68  88  67  86 /  50  40  20  10   0  20  10  30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion