Lost Island Lake, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

952
FXUS63 KDMX 271125
AFDDMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
625 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Weather on repeat - warm, ample sunshine, and dry conditions
  until at least the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
There is little change in the forecast thinking today from this time
yesterday with a dry and warm period expected into at least the
middle of next week. Visible satellite shows no clouds over the
state with the eastern edge of the broad ridge fully over the
region. There is a robust upstream shortwave trough moving over the
Alberta province into the Saskatchewan province with a surface
cold front extending through the Dakotas. This front will drop
through Iowa on Saturday. As it does so, a wind shift from the
southwest to from the northwest or west will occur with
slightly breezier daytime winds. Further, highs today to
Saturday will be similar over southern Iowa, but about 5 to 10
degrees lower in the upper 70s over northern Iowa. There is no
chance of rain as the front is moisture starved with forecast
soundings showing this dry air and a precipitable water value
under a half an inch. Thus, plenty of sunshine will prevail with
this continuing into Sunday as surface high pressure pushes into
Iowa behind the cold front.
Dry conditions will prevail through at least the first half of the
week as a slowly progressive omega block moves eastward with 500mb
lows over the Southeastern US and Arizona and the ridge between
the two. The progression and evolution of the Southeast US low
will be complicated by AL94`s arrival early next week with this
slowing down the flow and causing the upstream ridge to be
pinched at the bottom and/or tilted at the top. This will allow
the Arizona low to lift northeastward into the Dakotas by
midweek with Iowa remaining under lingering ridge influence and
light flow keeping conditions dry through midweek if not late
next week. Highs most days next week will be in the 80s with
lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the period. The current
forecast revolves around wind as a boundary will pass across the
area today cause a change in wind directions from
south/southwest to northerly. The wind may be breezy at times
as well later this morning and into the afternoon before
decoupling occurs by this evening and the wind diminishes.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Donavon

NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion