Lorida, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

868
FXUS62 KTBW 031735
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
135 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Increasing winds will continue to cause hazardous boating
   conditions through Sunday morning.
- Scattered showers and storms will develop each day, mainly in
   the afternoon and early evening hours.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Today`s forecast remains on track with the main concern being the
strong, gusty winds causing hazardous marine conditions. The
elevated, gusty northeast to east winds are expected to continue
through tomorrow before relaxing a little on Sunday. The higher
winds are attributed to tight pressure gradient between a high
pressure system over the Eastern Seabord and a weak tropical wave
over the Bahamas. Currently the National Hurricane Center has a
very low chance of the tropical wave developing into a tropical
system as it moves NW from the Bahamas over Florida this weekend.
No significant impacts are expected from this wave. It may provide
a little extra moisture for afternoon shower development over the
weekend, especially along the interior. Otherwise, the wave lifts
out of the region by the beginning of the week and a ridge builds
back in. This will allow afternoon temperatures to increase and
drop rain chances. By the end of next week, some models are
hinting at a cold front dipping down into Florida, that could drop
temperatures by a few degrees. However, it is a little early to
get too excited about fall like temperatures just yet.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions prevail through most of the area, with the exception
of a few low ceilings and showers moving through. Breezy northeast
to east conditions also continue through the day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Hazardous marine conditions into the weekend as the pressure
gradient remains tight between an high pressure to the north and a
tropical wave to the south. The winds subside slightly on Sunday,
but will likely remain around cautionary levels into next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Fire weather concerns remain minimal as plenty of moisture lingers
over the area. However, winds out of the northeast and east, do
remain elevated the next few days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  88  76  89 /  10  30  10  40
FMY  73  89  74  89 /  20  30  10  30
GIF  73  87  75  88 /  20  30  20  50
SRQ  72  89  73  89 /  10  30  10  30
BKV  69  87  72  88 /  10  30  10  50
SPG  75  87  75  87 /  10  30  10  30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion