Logan, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

355
FXUS64 KHUN 231819
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
119 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
An MCS was decaying and shifting east through southern middle TN
and northeast AL. This has shifted the heavy rain area east of the
previous Flash Flood Warning. We have converted this to an Areal
Flood Warning until 330 PM CDT. Rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches
have been received in parts of east central Limestone and
northern Madison Counties. In the wake of the MCS, a warm front
was situated from northern AR through southwest TN into northern
AL. Temperatures have warmed into the lower to middle 80s with dew
points in the lower 70s southwest of the front from the Shoals
through Cullman and Gadsden. Additional shower and thunderstorm
development is still possible along this boundary, but the chance
remains fairly low at less than 20%. There remains a low chance
that the remnants of the MCS that takes shape over northwest AR
this afternoon and evening can reach into northwest AL or southern
middle TN. However, chances will be greater after sunrise.
Previous Discussion...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1003 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
An MCS has sank south into north AL and southern middle TN this
morning. Rain rates of 2-4 inches per hour have been observed
resulting in excessive rainfall. CAMS have indicated this should
decay slowly through the day, but boundary layer convergence will
maintain these at least through midday with southwesterly inflow
of 20-25kt and PWs of 1.7-1.9 inches. Clouds and precipitation
may hold temperatures back lower than previously forecasted, so
will monitor this trend. Redevelopment of thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening may also be dependent on if any heating can
take place due to the extensive nature of the clouds and
precipitation. For tonight, chances of showers and thunderstorms
remain quite low as the shortwave departs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1003 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
As an upper trough drops into the Great Lakes, lower MO valley
into the southern Rockies, mid and upper level westerlies will
increase across much of the mid South into the OH and TN valleys.
Cyclogenesis results in the KS/OK region, with the low advancing
into IN/OH Wednesday along with one or more MCS. The southeast
extent of the MCS activity may reach into far northwest AL or
southern middle TN Wednesday morning. But the greater risk of
thunderstorms may occur Wednesday afternoon and evening as the
trailing cold front will push southeast as a shortwave advancing
east from the base of the trough advances into the Ozarks. UVVs
generated from resulting upper level divergence will likely
produce ample lift for multiple bands, segments or clusters of
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. With
SBCAPE values of 1500-2500 j/kg and 6km bulk shear increasing to
25-30kt, the risk of severe weather looks to increase. As of now a
marginal risk is in place in the Day 2 outlook, but this could
change if forecast conditions are able to develop. The question
marks include MCS activity and how it may influence instability
recovery on Wednesday. With the frontal boundary slowing down as
it moves southeast and the upper trough axis becoming anchored
from the OH valley southwest into east TX, additional clusters of
convection may keep developing through Wednesday night into
Thursday. This will amplify the risk of excessive rainfall and
flash flood risk. With the clouds and rainfall, temperatures will
be held in the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs on Thursday. By
Thursday night, the front and thunderstorms will have shifted
southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A bit of a welcomed pattern change will arrive Friday in the wake
of a cold front as high pressure moves in from the west and
enforces a cooler and drier airmass in time for the weekend. There
will be low chances (10-20%) for lingering showers east of I-65
Friday morning but most of the activity should be clear of the
area by then. Cloud cover should thin from west to east throughout
the day and northerly flow will help keep temps in the upper
70s/lower 80s through the afternoon. The remainder of the weekend
looks to be cool and dry with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows
near the 60 degree mark. With plenty of sunshine expected, it
should be a great early fall weekend for any outdoor activities.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A cluster of +SHRA and TSRA will gradually diminish in southern
middle TN and far northeast AL this afternoon. This activity will
remain northeast of KMSL and KHSV. VFR conditions are expected at
both KMSL and KHSV until early Wednesday morning by 14Z when lower
ceilings of 015-025agl (MVFR) overspread the area. There is a low
chance of TSRA, but this chance is greater further north in
western and middle TN.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...17

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion