Log Cabin, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

652
FXUS64 KFWD 190004
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
700 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue through this weekend with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
- Isolated to widely scattered storms will diminish in coverage
this evening, with rain chances returning late tonight into
Friday morning as a cluster of storms moves across North Texas.
- Low rain and storm chances will continue this weekend, but a
stronger storm system may bring better rain chances and slightly
cooler weather early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 112 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025/
/Through Friday Night/
Similar to the last few days, isolated showers and storms have
developed this afternoon and will continue through the early
evening across portions of North and Central TX. Latest surface
analysis and observations show a weak cold front currently over
our northwestern counties. Given the upper level system is well
north of our area, we`re still expecting a slow progression of the
front the rest of the day. Winds will remain light, so don`t
anticipate any decent cooldown. To the contrary, most of our area
will see west/southwest winds this afternoon which will keep the
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Those locations that see
any rain/storms may see a brief drop in temperatures. Most of the
activity that develops this afternoon will be short-lived and
sparse. The best forcing will remain north of our area across
central and southern Oklahoma. The main hazards with any storm
will be lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rain. As the front
slowly progresses south tonight into Friday morning, we could see
slightly higher coverage of rain and isolated storms, especially
along the Red River. Based on the latest high-res models, the
best moisture will reside in east/southeast Texas so we expect the
best coverage to be in this area. Afternoon highs will again rise
to the low to mid 90s outside of those locations that see rain or
stay mostly cloudy. Friday night will be fairly quiet and dry
with light winds returning to the south regionwide.
Sanchez
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 112 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025/
/Weekend and Next Week/
The main story of the long-term forecast continues to be the
active weather period expected early next week. The pattern aloft
will support upper level disturbances to dig into the southern
Plains which will not only will result in better rain/storm
chances but also slightly cooler temperatures. As mentioned in
previous discussions, uncertainty remains high on the progression
of these systems. This will also impact the potential for both
severe weather and heavy rain. Latest NBM keeps the average
rainfall totals across our region around 1.5" or less but some of
the reasonable worse case scenarios highlight higher totals
(around 2-4") through mid-week. However, there`s still almost
half of the ensembles that keep the highest rainfall north of our
region. On a positive note, we could see more seasonal
temperatures with highs in the 80s by mid-week.
Sanchez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
Several outflow boundaries have converged right over KDFW in the
last hour with northerly flow across the western Metroplex and
southeasterly flow across the eastern Metroplex. We will carry a
1-2 hour TEMPO group for north winds at all D10 terminals until
generally southeast flow returns after 02Z this evening. Rain and
thunder chances have come to an end for the rest of the night for
all D10 terminals and KACT.
Southeast flow will prevail through the overnight until an outflow
boundary out of the northeast highlighted by the most recent
suite of high-res guidance pushes toward the I-20 corridor after
14Z-15Z Friday morning. VCSH or VCTS may accompany this boundary,
especially after 18Z-19Z Friday afternoon and a precip mention in
the TAF may be needed in a future forecast update.
Langfeld
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  93  72  92  73 /  20  30  10   5  20
Waco                72  93  70  92  71 /  20  20  10   0   5
Paris               68  90  67  92  69 /  30  40  10   5  10
Denton              69  93  69  92  70 /  20  20   5  10  30
McKinney            70  92  69  92  71 /  20  30  10   5  20
Dallas              74  94  73  94  73 /  20  30  10   5  20
Terrell             70  91  68  91  69 /  20  40  10   5  10
Corsicana           72  92  71  92  71 /  20  30  10   0   5
Temple              70  93  68  92  69 /  10  20  10   0   5
Mineral Wells       68  93  68  94  68 /  20  20   0  20  20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion