Lockhart, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

362
FXUS64 KMOB 191718
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Now through Wednesday...
An upper trough over the East Coast slowly moves off through the
weekend. Another upper trough develops over the Lower Mississippi
River Valley over the weekend, then moves slowly east over the
Southeast in the coming week. Weak ridging developing between the
troughs will help a surface ridge develop over the Appalachians over
the weekend, which then builds southwest over the Southeast.
Southeast to southerly flow will move Gulf moisture inland west of
the forecast area in the coming week, which then shifts east over
the forecast area. PoPs increase from the west into the middle of
the coming week in response. Until then, pools of increased moisture
(precipitable h20 water values around 1.5" or a bit higher) working
with a weakness in the upper ridging will allow isolated afternoon
convection to form over the Southeast. Where will be hard to pin
down as the pools meander around over the region. For Friday, areas
along and west of the AL/MS state line and over our coastal counties
(seabreeze initiated) can see isolated afternoon convection.
Saturday, the moisture pool looks to shift away from the forecast
area. May see some convection, but coverage is expected to be low
enough to not warrant a PoP.
Temperatures remain above seasonal norms through the forecast. High
temperatures in the 90-95 degree range (upper 80s along the coast)
are expected through the weekend, with a bit of a downward trend in
the coming week as rain chances see an uptick. Low temperatures in
the mid 60s to around 70 over the forecast area Friday night see an
uptick through the weekend into the coming week as moisture levels
rise.
Weak, diurnally driven flow and decreasing tidal cycle will keep the
risk of Rip Currents Low through the weekend into the coming week.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions are anticipated through Saturday morning. A
predominately northwest to southwest flow at 5-10 knots develops
through the afternoon, with the southwesterly flow occurring near
the coast. Winds diminish to a calm or light and variable flow by
early this evening. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  94  69  92  68  90  68  91 /   0   0   0  10   0  10   0  20
Pensacola   73  92  73  89  72  88  73  89 /   0   0   0  10   0  10   0  10
Destin      74  89  74  88  73  88  73  88 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10
Evergreen   66  96  66  94  65  93  65  94 /   0   0   0  10   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  67  94  66  93  65  91  65  92 /   0   0   0  10   0   0   0  20
Camden      67  95  69  93  66  91  66  93 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Crestview   66  95  66  92  65  91  66  91 /   0   0   0  10   0  10   0  10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion