Leeds, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

825
FXUS61 KGYX 231739
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
139 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly sags south out of Quebec today while
southwest winds will advect warm and humid air into the region
ahead of the front. The front will bring chances for showers
through this afternoon with the front stalling across southern
New England through Wednesday keeping chances for showers in the
forecast. An area of low pressure will track across the
Northeast Thursday bringing the best chance for a widespread
soaking rainfall followed by a drying trend into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The best forcing for ascent is occurring right now and light
rain continues to steadily march across the forecast area.
Behind the back edge of that area...now entering the CT River
Valley...showers will continue into the evening as we slowly
lose diurnal instability. PoP is generally focused along the
southern half of the forecast area overnight...but I do not
anticipate widespread and/or heavy precip.
For now I also anticipate little clearing overnight...and so I
do not have fog in the forecast. However if clouds clear or
thin...some of the major river valleys may see radiation fog
develop.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Early Wed northeast winds will advect marine moisture
southwestward. By morning low cloud or fog may push into
coastal areas and expand westward...most likely as low
cloud...thru the afternoon. I do not expect many showers...but
it is possible that drizzle develops with all the low level
moisture and lingering WAA aloft. For now I have patchy fog to
use as a drizzle placeholder and to limit the number of weather
types in the forecast.
I did opt for a rip current statement as swell from Gabrielle
arrives. Seas are forecast right around the lower end of high
surf criteria...5 ft every 10 s...but rip current risk is high.
The Georges Bank buoy is currently around 5 to 6 ft every 11 to
12 s and so the current NWPS forecast seems on track for our
area. Despite the beach traffic well down from the peak
season...the beaches are now unguarded and I would prefer people
have the heads up.
Wed night the next system arrives with stronger forcing and what
looks like a little more widespread precip shield. North of the
warm front continued moist advection should keep any fog and low
clouds lingering thru the overnight. It is a pretty good set up
for fog and drizzle...with rain not arriving until closer to
daybreak for much of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure approaches and crosses New England Thursday into
Thursday night. Favorable lift from this low and PWATS in the 1.50-
1.75" range bring the best chance to see soaking rainfall on a
regional scale in quite some time, which will be most welcome.
Ensemble means from the ECMWF and GFS both advertise rainfall
amounts in the 0.75-1.00" range, with increasing support for
1.00- 1.25" in some areas.
The widespread precipitation gradually winds down through the course
of Thursday night, but a chance of showers will continue through
Friday as another shortwave approaches. Depending on the timing of
this wave, there could be a couple of storms on Friday with forecast
soundings showing some instability and shear to work with.
For the weekend and early next week, there is a strong signal in the
ensembles for another period of mostly dry weather. High pressure
returns for Saturday before it`s displaced by a low pressure well to
the north that will send a cold front across the region late in the
day into Saturday night or early Sunday. A couple of showers are
possible with this front, but that`s about it as moisture looks like
it will be lacking.
High pressure then builds in from Canada early next week with some
cooler temperatures arriving around next Tuesday. Until then highs
will be mainly in the 70s for the weekend, possibly into Monday.
Overnight lows will be pretty seasonable in the 40s and 50s, and
then Monday night and Tuesday have potential for good radiational
cooling as the high starts to settle in.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Largely VFR with local MVFR conditions this
afternoon in SHRA/RA. The trend in conditions will be down
however even as RA comes to an end. It is possible that it stays
DZ or BR overnight...but more likely advection brings low CIGs
and perhaps some DZ/BR to the southern half of the forecast area
beginning early Wed. That layer may linger thru the day into the
overnight before the next system arrives and scatters it out.
Long Term...Approaching low pressure is expected to bring
widespread IFR ceilings Thursday into Thursday night with some
improvement to MVFR on Thursday. In addition, visibility
restrictions with rain and fog are looking more likely. Mainly
VFR Friday with showers possible during the day, and possibly a
storm. Mainly VFR for Saturday as Sunday, although can`t
completely rule out a shower or two with a cold front Saturday
night or Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Building seas will continue thru Wed. This is due
in part to steady southerly winds but also swell arriving from
Gabrielle well out to sea. Areas of fog may develop on Wed and
spread south and west thru the day into the overnight period.
Long Term...South to southeast winds may increase to SCA levels
Thursday into Thursday night as low pressure approaches with
the center of the low expected to pass north of the waters. This
will also bring increasing chances for fog as well as rainfall.
Conditions improve Friday as winds become more westerly with
high pressure returning Saturday. Low pressure passing well to
the north sends a front across the waters Saturday night or
early Sunday, but SCA conditions are not expected. High pressure
then builds in from the north early next week.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Risk for Rip Currents from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for MEZ023>027.
NH...High Risk for Rip Currents from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152-
     154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Legro
SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Combs

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion