Lauderdale Isles, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

911
FXUS62 KMFL 021717
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
117 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Latest sfc and model analyses show the lingering leftovers of a
frontal boundary stretching across the FL east coast, while high
pressure keeps establishing over the SE CONUS. Meanwhile,
ensembles show a mid/upper lvl trough migrating eastward across
the area through tonight, along with continuing moisture advection
from the Atlantic by the prevailing sfc ENE flow.
The overall synoptic scenario will translate into increasing
favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms to begin
developing this afternoon. A wetter pattern will then establish
through the next several days with showers and thunderstorms
coverage becoming widespread at times, especially during the
afternoon and early evening hours.
Latest radar data shows shower and storm activity still remaining
over the Atlantic waters, but additional development and/or
coastal storms pushing inland is expected for the rest of today.
POPs/Wx grids carry max values in the 70-75 percent range today and
tomorrow, with particularly high chances along coastal locations.
The Weather Prediction Center is keeping much of SoFlo`s Atlantic
coastline under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall
through this evening as the moist easterly flow collides with the
aforementioned frontal boundary. PWATs are expected to remain over 2
inches, while MUCAPE in the 500-1000 j/kg range will also contribute
to increase the potential for locally high rain rates.
The increased cloud cover and shower activity should help in keeping
max temps in the upper 80s to low 90s, while overnight lows
should stay in the low to mid 70s across the whole area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
An active pattern begins to set up for South Florida today as breezy
ENE winds near the surface continue to sustain moisture advection
over the region, and an upper level trough is forecast to slide
eastward across the Florida peninsula. The combination of these
factors will help support scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing throughout the day today, generally moving south-
southwest. Some of these storms could bring heavy rain and gusty
winds, and localized street flooding could be possible with any
heavy downpours. Portions of the Palm Beach and Broward county
metro areas will be under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding today.
The trough will eventually open up as it moves over the Atlantic
late tonight, but conditions are forecast to remain unsettled as
guidance shows a mid-level low potentially developing over the
Bahamas. This would help enhance rainfall chances and coverage
overnight and into Friday, especially for areas along the
immediate coast, and over the local Atlantic waters. The 00Z HREF
24-hour precip probabilities capture this scenario pretty well,
with a handful of spots along the East Coast showing 40-50% chance
of exceeding 2" of rain, and a few even showing 30-40% of
exceeding 4 inches over the same time period. To that effect, WPC
has placed southeast FL under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding.
Slightly lower temperatures forecast through the short term period
given greater cloud coverage and convective activity. Highs will top
out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while overnight lows will stay in
the low to mid 70s across the whole area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
By Saturday, the aforementioned mid-level low is forecast to begin
lifting northward, but it`s influence will still be felt across
South Florida, where conditions will remain wet and unsettled
through the weekend. Rounds of scattered to numerous showers and a
few thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, with POPs in the
50-70% range. Best chances are forecast to be constrained north of
Alligator Alley.
Surface high will being to build across the area early next week,
signaling a return to the more routine summertime regime of easterly
winds and afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the interior and
southwest.
High temperatures through the extended period will generally
reach the low 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across
the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis are possible through this evening as
showers and thunderstorms develop over the Atlantic metro areas,
and around Naples. Some storms may produce brief gusty winds in
the 20-40kt range at times. In general, breezy easterly-
northeasterly winds will continue through much of the TAF period
with VFR returning after 02-03Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
A moderate northeasterly breeze is expected across the local waters
for the rest of the week. Hazardous seas are expected to continue
for the Atlantic waters over the next few days as ongoing swell
continues behind Hurricane Imelda. Seas will range from 6-9 feet
today and are expected to rise further for Friday and this weekend.
Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic
waters and the northern Gulf waters through late Friday night.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Fresh onshore flow and elevated swell behind Hurricane Imelda will
result in a high risk of rip currents and high surf heights (for
Palm Beach county beaches) through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  85  75  86 /  60  70  60  70
West Kendall     75  85  74  87 /  50  70  50  70
Opa-Locka        75  85  75  87 /  60  70  60  70
Homestead        75  85  75  86 /  50  70  60  70
Fort Lauderdale  75  84  75  85 /  70  70  60  70
N Ft Lauderdale  75  84  75  86 /  70  70  60  70
Pembroke Pines   75  87  76  88 /  60  70  60  70
West Palm Beach  75  84  75  85 /  70  70  60  70
Boca Raton       74  85  75  87 /  70  70  60  70
Naples           74  88  74  87 /  40  70  40  60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ168-172-173.
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday
     for GMZ656-676.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION/UPDATE...17

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion