Las Palomas, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

147
FXUS64 KEPZ 021207
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
607 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 545 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Dry conditions persist through the weekend and into the
   beginning of next week.
- Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal as a drier air
   mass takes over. Southerly winds may also become a little
   breezy Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1011 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Continued dry in the short/mid term as upper high over Mexico
ridges northward and drifts east as a response to Pacific trough
moving into the Great Basin by Friday and Saturday. Persistent
southwest flow aloft should keep the area dry through the weekend.
However GFS/NAM12, and to lesser degree, the ECMWF show some
moisture transport northward Friday night and Saturday; perhaps a
result of a weak short wave rotating through the Great Basin
trough. For now will not increase POPs in the grids, but this
bears some watching.
The new week ahead continues the dry southwest flow pattern
through the end of the forecast period (Tuesday). Expect
continued mostly clear skies with just a few afternoon buildups.
Temperatures will continue around 5-7 degrees above normal. One
thing to watch...GFS does bring a weak back door cool front into
the northern part of the CWA Wednesday with some light precip.
Looking further out...we continue to watch for some interaction
with what would be tropical system Priscilla, up into the Desert
Southwest. Both GFS/ECMWF have been showing this around the
Thursday-Friday time frame. Not unexpectedly, both models have
fluctuating with solutions recently. The latest GFS keeps the
surface feature out to sea west of the Baja, while the ECMWF
brings surface remnants across the Baja into Arizona. Either of
these solutions right now looks to impact Arizona more than our
CWA. Any eastward shift in the moisture plume/remnants could
obviously tilt the action more to us.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Mainly SKC
persist with winds AOB 8kts mainly from S-SE. FEW090 develop
during the afternoon and dissipate in the evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 545 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period.
Upper ridging builds over the region for the rest of the week,
resulting in warm and dry conditions. Winds will be light today
from the S-SE, becoming breezier for the weekend ahead of an
approaching trough and shifting southwesterly. Wind speeds of
10-20 mph can be expected Saturday afternoon as the pressure
gradient tightens a bit with the strongest winds over northern
areas. Rain/storm chances remain near zero through the weekend
with increasing moisture expected into the middle of next week.
Low-end rain chances are forecast for area mtns late in the
forecast. Overnight recoveries will be good through Sun, then very
good to excellent. Temperatures stay a few degrees above normal.
Min RHs range from 15-30% through Sun, 25-40% in the Sacs. Vent
rates will be fair to good today, improving to good to excellent
by the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  67  90  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  84  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               59  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               59  86  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               44  65  44  64 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    59  85  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              56  80  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   59  89  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                63  87  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                57  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             62  90  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               59  80  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   62  89  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             62  86  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           63  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            59  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    59  88  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 61  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                59  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  75  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                49  77  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 48  72  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  49  78  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                57  84  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                57  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             51  80  52  78 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   56  83  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    59  88  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               57  84  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  57  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   61  88  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  59  87  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           60  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               61  83  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion