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Lansing, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

230
FXUS63 KEAX 231129
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 629 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and storms today. Storms may be capable of a few strong wind gusts 40 to 50 mph. Locally heavy rainfall is possible south of the Missouri River.

- Chance for rain continues into Wednesday. No strong or severe storms are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Early this morning, a cold front is draped across southern Iowa extending to a surface low in southeast Nebraska with the cold front extending southwest from there across central Kansas. This cold front will progress slowly southeastward through the forecast area today. As it does several lead shortwaves ejecting out ahead of a upper level trough over the eastern Rockies moving into the western High Plains will move through the area. This will produce a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms today. The severe threat appears low at this time although modest instability between 1000-1500J/Kg of MUCAPE and effective shear of 30-40kts will be adequate to produce a few storms capable of gusty winds to 40-50 MPH. Also, of minor concern is he potential for flooding. PWAT values between 1.50"-1.75", which falls between the 75th-99th percentile for late September, will provide for efficient storms. Fortunately, antecedent conditions have been dry with most areas needing to receive 2-4" of rain for issues to occur and forecast rainfall amounts for areas along and south of the Missouri River are 1-2". If locally higher rainfall amounts are realized its not out of the question minor localized flooding could occur. With, cloudy and stormy conditions expected today, highs will remain in the low to mid 70s. As we move into tonight, the cold front will sink south of the area, however, the northern energy of an elongated upper trough extending from the Great lakes into the Central Plains will move through the region as a closed low develops in the base over the western Kansas. This wave moving through the region tonight with continue the chances for scattered showers and perhaps a few storms. Tomorrow, the closed low over western Kansas will progress slowly eastward over Kansas during the morning before becoming an open wave which will move through the local area Wednesday afternoon. This will continue the chance (20%-40%) of showers and a few storms over the area on Wednesday with highs in the lower 70s. This system will slide east of the area Wednesday night with dry conditions returning to the area for Thursday as surface high pressure builds into the area. Highs Thursday will return to near normal with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

The extended period Friday through Monday looks to remain dry and seasonably warm. The main feature of interest during this time frame will be a closed upper level low over the southwestern CONUS. In response to this feature, downstream upper level ridging will build over the central CONUS. This will allow highs to rise into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Friday through Sunday. Monday, the upper level low over the southwestern CONUS becomes an open wave that will move into the southern Rockies however, upper ridging will still remain in control over the local area with highs remaining in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR cigs btn 1-2kft and vis reduced to 4SM-5SM will impact the TAF sites thru 19Z-22Z. Aft 19Z-22Z pcpn will come to an end however, cigs will drop into IFR for the remainder of the TAF pd. Aft 01Z-03Z lgt fog development will also reduce vis to 4SM-5SM. Winds will be out of the ENE/NE btn 5-10kts thru 01Z-03Z when they will shift to the north and remain wkn to around 5kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...73

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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