754 FXUS63 KEAX 241723 AFDEAXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...Updated 18z Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance for rain/drizzle this morning. Isolated thunderstorm possible this afternoon south of I-70.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
This morning, the upper level trough which was the impetus for yesterday`s showery day is extending from the western Great Lakes into the central Plains. As we progress through the day, the upper level trough will slowly move through the local area providing lift for light showers and drizzle and isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon south of I-70. Cloud cover will keep highs in the low to mid 70s. Tonight, the upper level trough will shift east of the area as a surface ridge of high pressure begins to build into the area from the Upper Midwest which will dry conditions out. Tomorrow, the surface ridge axis will build over the area. Aloft, a closed upper low will dig from the west coast into the southwestern CONUS. This will allow downstream upper level ridging to build over the eastern Rockies and western Plains. This will provide height rises over the local area allowing highs to rise into the mid to upper 70s. This pattern will prevail Friday and Saturday with additional height rises producing a warming trend with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday and highs in the low to mid 80s Saturday. Sunday the upper level ridge axis builds directly over area with highs again in the low to mid 80s. Sunday into Monday the upper level low over the southwestern CONUS will become an open wave approaching the Plains. However, with the upper level ridge firmly in place the upper level trough is shunted south of the area into the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley. This will keep conditions dry and seasonably warm into early next week with highs in the low to mid 80s.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
An hour or two more of MVFR stratus clouds expected across the KC metro terminals, then should scatter out. VFR ceilings expected to continue through much of the TAF period. Fog possible in northern Missouri Thursday morning, and at STJ. Winds generally light. Most shower activity has pushed south of Kansas City.
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.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None.
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DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...Krull
NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion