Lakeview Estates, Indiana Weather Forecast Discussion

862
FXUS63 KIND 291848
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
248 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry with unseasonably warm afternoons this week
- Patchy fog possible during the overnights in Wabash River Valley
- Drought persists and worsens across Central Indiana into October
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
While it may be the last few days of September, the weather will
feel more like August this week across Central Indiana. Little
change to the short term forecast with this afternoon`s forecast
package as high pressure remains the dominant weather influence for
at least the next week.
Latest surface analysis shows a surface high pressure over the Great
Lakes and Northeast with light northeasterly flow across Indiana.
Strong ridging aloft with well above normal heights and low
temperature anomalies for this time of year will essentially keep
this summertime airmass in place through the week. Today is shaping
up to be one of the hottest days of the week with temperatures
approaching the 90 degree mark this afternoon. With very dry grounds
and worsening drought conditions, diurnal temperature ranges are
typically larger than what guidance suggests, therefore increased
highs this afternoon a few degrees above short term model guidance.
Upper 80s to low 90s will be widespread through this evening for all
of Central Indiana.
For tonight, high pressure overhead and a weak pressure gradient
make for optimal conditions for radiational cooling once again.
Temperatures should plummet fairly quickly after sunset with lows in
the upper 50s to low 60s. Despite a rapidly drying boundary layer,
patchy fog will still be possible in low lying areas, mainly in the
Wabash River Valley. Any fog should be rather patchy and dissipate
after sunrise.
Very similar conditions for Tuesday with another day of hot and dry
weather. Northeasterly flow increases some over the area resulting
in highs a few degrees cooler than on Monday in the mid to upper
80s. Nevertheless, it`s still going to feel like summer rather than
early fall. The main concern each afternoon this week will be RH
values during peak heating of the day possible dropping in the 20-30
percent range. While winds will stay light, under any fire weather
thresholds, RH values may meet critical fire weather levels leading
to an elevated fire risk.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
High confidence in the long term forecast as a hot and dry weather
pattern continues for the region into early October. Surface high
pressure and ridging aloft will be the dominant weather influences
for Indiana`s weather in the next 7-14 days, keeping the summertime
heat locked in place with little to no chances for rain.
Little change in the day to day weather in the coming week as high
pressure slowly shifts from the Great Lakes to the Northeast to the
Mid Atlantic. A weakening moisture starved upper trough passes
overhead Wednesday and Thursday resulting in an increase in high
level clouds, but the only surface impacts will be slightly "cooler"
high temperatures in the lower 80s. Ample sunshine returns late week
into next weekend with highs reaching at least into the low to mid
80s. Expect large diurnal temperature ranges in this type of pattern
with relief from the heat each night as lows drop into the mid 50s
to low 60s.
The main concern each day through next weekend are low afternoon RH
values dropping into the 20-30 percent range and the worsening
drought conditions. Model guidance struggles with drier air mixing
down to the surface and typically keeps dew points and RH too high
in patterns like this. Afternoon RH and Dew Points will likely be
closer to the NBM10th percentile or lower each day. Watching the
possibility for an increased fire weather risk this week due to such
dry and hot conditions. Winds remain under any critical thresholds,
but the prolonged stretch of heat and dry weather may still lead to
an elevated fire weather risk.
High confidence exists in a weather pattern supportive of well above
normal temperatures and below normal rainfall continuing into Mid
October. Guidance struggles to break down these strong blocking
patterns in the long term, typically bringing in chances for rain
and storm systems too fast. While some longer range models and
ensembles show a few chances for rain by Mid October, low confidence
exists in any one solution. For now, keeping the extended forecast
hot and dry.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Impacts:
- Brief MVFR conditions in fog possible at KHUF/KLAF tonight
Discussion:
Little change to the aviation forecast for the next 24-30 hours as
high pressure keeps a relatively stagnant weather pattern in place.
Mainly VFR conditions should prevail through the period outside of a
slight chance for fog at KHUF/KLAF tonight. Best chance for any fog
will be in the 07-12z timeframe. Not expecting fog to be as
persistent and thick as last night`s due to continued drying of the
near surface layer. Any fog should lift and dissipate by 13z with
VFR conditions expected the rest of the day tomorrow.
Winds will follow a typical diurnal pattern today and tomorrow,
increasing during the afternoon and diminishing at night.
Northeasterly winds under 10 kts expected this afternoon and
tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...CM

NWS IND Office Area Forecast Discussion