Lake Windsor, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

328
FXUS63 KMKX 270239
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
939 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Potential for patchy to areas of fog, including some dense fog
  at times, to develop overnight into early Saturday morning.
- Above normal temps and dry weather expected through the
  weekend and into next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 940 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
An arc of low level stratus clouds has progressed southwestward
from east-central Wisconsin throughout the early evening hours,
and we are beginning to see some clearing behind it (Sheboygan,
West Bend, Port Washington, and northern Milwaukee. Models had
previously indicated that this arc of clouds may stall somewhere
over the region and help delay / reduce fog potential, but on
satellite, the clouds are looking progressive (consistently
moving) and decreasing in coverage. As such, we can expect
patchy ground fog to begin to develop within the next few hours
(beginning towards east-central Wisconsin in low-lying marshy
areas), with patchy to areas of fog likely to develop elsewhere
over time as well. This fog may become locally dense at times,
and we will be monitoring surface observing stations and highway
cameras to determine if / when a dense fog advisory is needed.
That said, forecast soundings hint at the potential for a window
of subsiding air (after 3 AM CDT), which could hinder fog
formation. We would need to confirm spatial / temporal
continuity of the fog before issuing a short-fused advisory.
Sheppard
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Tonight through Saturday night:
Stratus deck behind the backdoor cold front halted and will
continue across east central WI for the remainder of the
afternoon. Rest of southern WI is experience sunshine and temps
warming into the upper 70s and low 80s. Cooler temps and calm
winds are expected into the overnight hours. The lingering cloud
deck across east-central WI may spread south and inland
overnight and may be accompanied by patchy to areas of fog
development given the light winds and increased low-level
moisture with a quick passing surface high. Fog would linger
into Saturday morning before lifting after daybreak as warmer,
southerly winds gradually pick up into the afternoon. Looking
at summer-like temps for Saturday with high creeping into the
low to mid 80s for Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile a mid-level shortwave trough and surface low is
progged to traverse across Ontario through the day. As it
pushes further east the associated cold front is progged to
drift southward across southern WI Saturday evening/night.
However, given the dry conditions not expect any precip
associated with this frontal passage and mainly will see a
westerly wind shift along with a cooler airmass as high
pressure begins to build in overnight. Looking at lows Saturday
night into Sunday morning in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Wagner
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Sunday through Friday:
Continue to see the surface high build into the Great Lakes
Region for Sunday and slowly progress east through the start of
next week. Will also see an upper-level ridge sets up across the
Upper Midwest and linger into the middle of next week.
Accompanying this pattern will be temps gradually warming each
day from mid 70s Sunday into the low/mid 80s Monday/Tuesday.
Looking at another high pressure system to build down from
Canada by midweek and bring more easterly winds, which could
result in cooler temps midweek onward. However, this will also
be dependent on the tropical systems in the Atlantic and their
tracks as the slower solutions would enhances our
easterly/cooler flow, but if the more progressive model
materializes, southern WI may end up warmer than the current
forecast keeping the easterly winds further north.
Overall, looking at a dry, fairly inactive pattern (no rain
chances) with near to above normal temps this weekend through
the middle of next week.
Wagner
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 940 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
An arc of MVFR stratus ceilings continues to progress
southwestward across the region, with some clearing out behind
it noted in Sheboygan. As these clouds continue to progress
southwestward and decrease in coverage, patchy to areas of fog
should develop over the next several hours, beginning with low-
lying marshy areas. TAFs currently indicate potential for MVFR
visbys due to patchy fog (with TEMPO groups for IFR where we
expect the worst of it). We`ve included FL005 (500 ft AGL) cloud
bases in the TAFs to hint at the potential for windows of LIFR
(due to locally dense fog and accompanying low ceilings). We
wouldn`t be surprised to see this in a few spots, though
confidence is too low (at any individual terminal) to mention
prevailing LIFR in the TAFs just yet. Stay tuned for TAF
amendments, which could be frequent.
Nearly calm winds overnight evolve into light southwesterlies
Saturday morning. Fog begins to rapidly erode after sunrise,
leaving VFR and quiet weather through Saturday.
Sheppard
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
High pressure will quickly skirt across Lake Michigan this
evening/overnight bringing lighter winds. High pressure will
trek into Quebec by Saturday morning, while sub-1000mb low
pressure tracks across northern Ontario through the day
Saturday. Will see more southerly winds gradually pick up ahead
this system`s dry cold front, which will push across the Upper
Great Lakes late Saturday afternoon into the overnight. Another
high pressure is expected to quickly build in behind this
frontal passage for Sunday with lighter and variable winds. Will
see this high pressure gradually work eastward through the
start of next week with a return of southerly winds Monday and
Tuesday. Easterly winds may return toward the middle of next
week as another stronger high pressure builds down across the
Great Lakes region.
Wagner
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion