Lagrange, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

994
FXUS61 KBTV 271831
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
231 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A mild night is in store as temperatures drop back into the 50s to
near 60 degrees by Sunday morning with mostly cloudy skies. Sunday
will feature increasing amounts of sunshine with temperatures
warming back into the 70s. The trend of above normal temperatures
will continue for Monday and Tuesday, before cooler air arrives for
mid to late week associated with a dry cold front. No precipitation
is expected this upcoming week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 231 PM EDT Saturday...Mid/upper lvl moisture conts to advect
from southwest to northeast acrs the Mid Atlantic into New England,
while a decaying stationary boundary is located over our southern
cwa. These two features wl continue to produce multiple layers of
clouds overnight, which combined with increasing winds of 15 to 25
knots btwn 400 and 800 feet agl should limit fog development.
Soundings support brief/shallow fog development in the CT River
Valley into the NEK valleys, so have placed a little patchy fog.
Otherwise, clouds should limit temps from falling quickly with lows
50s to lower 60s acrs our region. Sunday wl see increasing sunshine
as mid/upper lvl moisture axis shifts to the east. However, there is
a narrow axis of mid lvl moisture associated with weak boundary that
wl produce a few more clouds on Sunday. Temps wl warm back into the
70s to near 80F with comfortable humidity levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 231 PM EDT Saturday...Very quiet period of wx anticipated with
building 1024mb high pres acrs our cwa on Monday and approaching dry
cold frnt on Monday night. Sfc high pres and deep dry layer aloft
should result in clear skies and light winds on Sunday night,
allowing temps to reach cross over values and for fog development in
climo favored valleys. As mixing of drier air aloft occurs on
Monday, expect near critically dry rh values, especially deeper
valley locations of the CPV and CT River Valley areas. Sfc winds on
Monday wl be south/southwest 5 to 10 mph with a few localized gusts
up to 15 mph possible. Progged 925mb temps near 18C with mostly
sunny skies and good mixing supports highs well into the 70s to near
80F on Monday. As backdoor cold frnt feature approaches our cwa on
Monday night, ribbon of enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture develops
along with a tightening thermal gradient associated with developing
north winds. This advection of cooler air does not support much fog
development on Monday night with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 231 PM EDT Saturday...High pressure builds down from the north
on Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing a colder airmass. The cold air
advection will come from strong northeasterly winds, something that
is relatively uncommon. The high will sink south almost directly
from the north and the tropical systems well to the southeast will
help strengthen the favorably oriented pressure gradient. While
relative humidities should stay above critical values, the stronger
winds will cause some fire weather concerns, most notably on
Wednesday when gusts will reach the 15-25 mph range. The high
pressure will settle overhead going into the end of the weak, so
winds will diminish a bit, but enough low-level flow may prevent
ideal radiational cooling conditions at night. Temperatures should
drop into the low 30s in many areas Wednesday night and Thursday
night, but continued winds may prevent efficient frost formation,
despite temperatures likely being favorable. The high pressure will
remain over the region going into the weekend but warmer air will
begin to wrap around it, and southerly flow will also develop as its
center passes to the east, so temperatures will rise back above
climatological normals.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will mostly prevail for the next
24 hours. The current VFR ceilings at SLK could briefly drop to MVFR
a few times in the early to mid afternoon, but the trend will be
toward continuous VFR ceilings by late afternoon. VFR conditions
should then persist through tomorrow afternoon. Patchy fog will
develop late tonight in a few places, but it is not expected to
reach any terminal. There is still a low chance it briefly forms at
SLK or MPV, maybe around a 10-20 percent chance. Winds will
generally be light and variable today and tonight, before becoming
southerly during the day tomorrow. Winds should gust between 10-20
KTs by tomorrow afternoon.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Myskowski

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion