Laceys Spring, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

746
FXUS64 KHUN 190500
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Friday)
Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Broad surface high pressure situated over the Mid Atlantic was the
main feature controlling sensible weather across the Tennessee
Valley. With subsidence under this high, no weather of consequence
was occurring at the moment. A weak upper troughing pattern should
remain in place along the eastern half of the North American
domain into the weekend. The infrared and low cloud/fog satellite
view indicated high altitude clouds approaching from the west. An
otherwise mostly clear to partly cloudy night is expected for the
overnight, with low temperatures falling into the low/mid 60s with
light winds. The clear skies, light winds, and longer late summer
nights are ideal for the development of late night fog. Although
fog formation does look possible, am expecting it to remain patchy
in coverage. That said cannot rule out some locations experiencing
fog becoming locally dense.
Very warm late summer conditions are again forecast to close out
the work week/Friday. High temperatures in the afternoon should
rise from the upper 80s east to low/mid 90s west. A bit more lower
level moisture seeping in from the west will result in low chances
of afternoon showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity should taper off Friday
evening with a loss of daytime heating. New model output was
continuing the diminishing trend. Another mild night is expected
with lows in the low/mid 60s.
The models continued to trend more to the drier side as we go into
the weekend. Thus under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, high
temperatures Sat/Sun should range from the upper 80s east to
low/mid 90s west with light winds. Low temperatures Saturday night
should cool into the mid/upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
The autumn season begins Monday afternoon around 119 PM Central
Time. By the time we reach the new work week, the weak troughing
pattern along the eastern half of the continent will actually
become some what of a broad zonal flow. While that occurs, a
synoptic system is forecast to form somewhere over the Front
Range and High Plains. Have to say somewhere, as the deterministic
models had a variety of solutions. By Thursday morning, the 12Z
GFS had a weaker upper low translating over the southern Great
Lakes, while the ECMWF at the same time had a deep closed low over
the Ozarks. The Canadian was showing just a weak wave over the
mid/upper Mississippi Valley. From the GFS/Canadian POV, a better
transport of lower level moisture from the Gulf of America should
bring chances for showers/thunderstorms for much of this period.
The ECMWF deeper low would bring much higher rain chances and
possibly strong storms should that solution occur.
Given the uncertainty, will stay with an ensemble/blend approach.
It for the last few runs have been going with mostly lower end
convection chances (20-30%) next week. Unseasonably warm conditions
should continue for the period. Low temperatures should range in
the 60s, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Monday/Tuesday,
then a tad cooler in the 80s on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR weather should continue into the overnight. However as we near
daybreak, cannot rule out patchy fog development. At the moment,
have higher confidence of fog at KMSL with VSBY reduced to 4SM,
while in KHSV 5SM. Any fog that forms should dissipate shortly
after sunrise Fri morning. A slightly stronger moisture return
over NW AL could result in isolated convection developing in the
afternoon. Confidence on chances of shower activity are too low
for inclusion in this TAF. Light winds overnight into Fri morning
should become WNW in the 4-8kt range Fri afternoon, then should
become light and variable Fri evening.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RSB

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion