Labette, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

199
FXUS63 KICT 180810
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
310 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued showers/storms today, gradually exiting to the east
  this evening and tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated
  flooding concerns possible. A few strong to marginally severe
  storms possible this afternoon-evening.
- Active pattern continues Friday night through mid to late next
  week with periodic shower/storm chances. A handful of strong
  to severe storms possible Friday night through Monday night.
- Chances are increasing for a decent cool down by Tuesday of
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
PRECIPITATION:
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...A strong shortwave trough moving in from the
west will support off-and-on scattered to numerous
showers/thunderstorms across the region areawide today, and over
mostly eastern and southeast Kansas this evening and tonight. Strong
forcing in concert with cooling temperatures aloft, steepening lapse
rates, moderate instability and 25-35 kts of deep layer effective
shear may support a handful of strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy
rainfall is likely as well, which could support isolated flooding
concerns. Model consensus supports widespread additional rainfall
amounts of roughly 0.25 to 0.50 inches through tonight, with
additional localized 1-2+ inch amounts possible.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...While there remains
quite a bit of uncertainty, deterministic consensus continues to
support periodic shower/thunderstorm chances Friday night through
mid to late next week, as various shortwaves progress over the
region within progressive west-northwest flow aloft. The combination
of forecast buoyancy/shear suggests a handful of strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible from Friday night through Monday night,
along with locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding concerns.
Per deterministic consensus, could even be looking at some steady
stratiform rainfall periodically from Tuesday through Thursday, with
a deep slow-moving upper trough dropping southeast over Mid-America.
Severe weather chances look much lower with this activity. Stay
tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.
TEMPERATURES:
A cool down into mostly the 70s is expected today, due to increased
clouds and precipitation chances and decreased atmospheric thickness.
For Friday through Monday, temperatures should get back closer to
seasonal normals in the 80s, as both thickness and southerly flow
increase across the region.
By Tuesday and persisting through Thursday or Friday, a slow-moving
deep upper trough dropping southeast over Mid-America and an
associated strong cold front should support a decent cool down into
at least the 70s for daytime highs and 50s for overnight lows.
However, the latest GFS and ECMWF supports high temperatures in the
60s with widespread clouds/precipitation. Stay tuned as we continue
to refine forecast details in the coming day.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Off-and-on scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms will
impact the region overnight through about mid this evening, as a
strong storm system approaches from the west. Dime size hail,
strong wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall may accompany the
strongest activity. The 06z TAFs are an admittedly low
confidence forecast, as timing with these hit-or-miss showers
and thunderstorms has been rather erratic. Thinking activity
will be most widespread generally late tonight through mid-
afternoon Thursday, with activity gradually exiting to the east
thereafter.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion