Kuroki, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

782
FXUS63 KBIS 061730
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freezing temperatures are expected in western and north
  central North Dakota tonight.
- Dry with below average temperatures continue for the first
  half of the week, with highs mostly in the 50s. A slight warm-
  up with highs in the 60s and 70s is then anticipated to close
  out the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Quiet weather continues across western and central North Dakota
the time of this mid day update. Gusty west to southwest winds
are starting to develop across the north, with speeds of 15 MPH
and gusts of 25 MPH observed. Gusty winds will linger across the
north through the early afternoon, before diminishing through
the late afternoon and evening. We have also issued a Freeze
Warning across western and portions of north central North
Dakota for tonight with this update. See weather.gov/bis for
details. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 955 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Calm and clear conditions are found across western and central
North Dakota this morning. With the sunrise, temperatures have
begun to rapidly climb to above freezing across the forecast
area. Thus, the Freeze Warning will be allowed to expire on time
at 10 AM CDT / 9 AM MDT. Have made some slight adjustments to
the cloud cover along the ND/SD state line this morning, but
otherwise the forecast remain on track at this time.
UPDATE
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Temperatures continue to drop below freezing across most of the
area. The latest surface observations and NBM wind data was
loaded into the going forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Currently there is quasi-zonal flow across North Dakota at the
bottom of a large trough. Moving on shore in the Pacific
Northwest, is a large ridge. At the surface a strong high
pressure center, located in eastern Montana, is influencing the
Northern Plains. Temperatures are currently falling into the 20s
across the state as the surface high pressure is calming winds
and not allowing a blanket of clouds to keep in the radiational
heating. The lowest temperatures are occurring in far
northwestern North Dakota, but freezing temperatures are
possible across the state. For western and central North Dakota,
a Freezing Warning is on going. In the eastern third of the
state a Freeze Advisory is ongoing.
Today through Friday multiple surface high pressures will slide
through the Northern Plains. Aloft, northwest flow will be
dominate until Wednesday when a small ridge moves across. This
will allow Wednesday to be the warmest day of the work week as
slightly warmer 850mb temperatures move in. Wednesday will also
be quite breezy in the central and east. A tight surface
pressure gradient will create south winds to gust around 35mph.
Temperatures will generally remain around the 60s through
Friday. Friday night the pattern aloft changes to southwest
flow, as a strong low and digging trough exist in the western
CONUS. Next weekend as a result could be rainy again. The
current NBM run has slight chances (20%) of rain through Monday.
Temperatures this weekend could be warmer too, looking at highs
possibly in the 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
VFR ceilings and visibility is anticipated at all terminals
throughout the 18Z TAF period. Gusts west to southwest winds,
with speeds up to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots, is
anticipated across the north this afternoon. Winds are then
expected to diminish this evening, becoming light and variable
in direction overnight. Winds will then strengthen and
reorganize out of the south southeast late Tuesday morning.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 9 AM
CDT /8 AM MDT/ Tuesday for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>034-
040>044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Adam/Smith
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Adam

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion