Kingman, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

261
FXUS65 KVEF 020921
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
221 AM PDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Our next system arrives Friday, bringing precipitation chances to
  the Great Basin and dry, gusty conditions elsewhere.
* Beyond Friday, temperatures will remain slightly below normal
  along with dry conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.
Models remain in good agreement on the arrival of our next system on
Friday and expectations for this storm have not changed too much.
Precipitation chances remain confined to the Sierra and Great Basin,
where PoPs range from 20-60% (highest in our farthest northwest
locations). Precipitation amounts don`t look significant at this
time, with the valleys having a 75% chance of less than 0.25" and
the mountains having a 75% chance of less than 0.50". However, snow
levels around 9,500-10,000 feet will allow some minor snow
accumulations (1-4") to occur on the Sierra crest. Farther
southeast, dry conditions continue on Friday while winds ramp up.
Fairly widespread gusts of 20-40 mph are likely (50% chance or
greater) from western San Bernardino/southern Inyo counties up to
central/northern Mohave County and Lincoln County. Hi-res guidance
highlights portions of the Owens Valley and the Desert Rock to
Indian Springs area with 50% odds of seeing 40+ mph gusts due to
localized downsloping.
The progressive nature of this system means that it`ll be out of our
area by Saturday. In its wake, drier conditions, cooler
temperatures, and lighter breezes. Ensembles continue to indicate a
reloading/persistent trough over the western US through the middle
of next week, which means the aforementioned conditions are likely
to linger, albeit with a slight moderation in temperatures toward
seasonable values.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds to
shift back to the southwest around 6-8 knots before becoming light
and variable overnight. Winds will re-develop from the southeast
around 6-8 knots through 21Z Thursday followed by increasing south
to southwest flow with gusts of 15-20 knots in the afternoon. VFR
conditions through the period with an occasional high cloud on
Thursday afternoon/evening.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds generally follow
diurnal directional patterns across the region through Thursday
morning and will remain less than 10 knots. Winds are expected to
increase to around 10-15 knots after 21z out of the south to
southwest for most areas with reach slightly above 15 kts in the
Owens Valley. VFR conditions prevail, with sct-bkn clouds around 10-
15kft across the north in the vicinity of KBIH by late Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Czyzyk
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion