Kickapoo, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

496
FXUS63 KILX 302301
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
601 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above normal temperatures and dry weather will continue
  into this weekend.
- Elevated fire weather conditions will develop Saturday through
  Monday, as south winds increase across the Midwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Midday surface map indicated 1035 mb high pressure centered near
James Bay. A ridge axis extended southwest just west of central
IL and down into TX. Winds have been more notable than recent
days from a slightly tightened pressure gradient and deeper
mixing. Northeast winds around 10 mph were common with a few gusts
to 20 mph. Isodrosotherms showed a pool over very dry low level
air to our east where dew points in the lower 30s to lower 40s
covered central to eastern Indiana. This drier air will advect
west into our region tonight and with this in mind have lowered
mins to the low end of guidance in the mid 50s.
Still little change noted in the synoptic pattern through the end
of this week. Omega block remains centered over the central CONUS,
anchored by deep upper lows off the west and east coasts of
Canada. Thus our dry and hot weather pattern will continue for
several more days. The low RH airmass will promote large diurnal
temperature ranges highs generally in the upper 80s and lows in
the 50s to lower 60s through this weekend. As we head into this
weekend we begin to see some changes in the upper flow pattern,
when the closed low off the Pacific coast begins to open,
allowing troughing to advance across the western US. This will
begin to weaken the upper ridge and also introduce a tighter MSLP
gradient to the central US.
Beginning Saturday and persisting through early next week,
guidance points to south winds gusting 15-25 mph each afternoon.
Normally this would not be impactful, but given the worsening
drought conditions, low RH airmass, dry fine fuels, and active
harvesting taking place, ingredients for elevated fire danger and
farm field fires will be in place. In fact, the Hot-Dry-Windy
Index (HDWI) using the GEFS, shows max daily values rising above
the 75th percentile this weekend, based on a 30-year climatology.
So we will likely be increasing our messaging for elevated fire
danger as this weekend approaches.
As far as relief from the hot and dry pattern, global ensembles
offer a glimmer of hope as we get into the early to middle
portions of next week. By this time the upper ridge becomes
flattened, potentially opening the region to a weak frontal
passage and somewhat cooler air. However, prospects for
significant rainfall are very low with the NBM and LREF showing
only a 10-20% chance of over 0.25" QPF through Tuesday.
25
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
While a general increase in clouds is expected over the next 24
hours, they will be of the high variety, and VFR conditions will
continue to prevail. Northeast winds will gradually trend more
toward the southeast on Wednesday, though speeds will only range
from 5-8 knots.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion