Kerin, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

141
FXUS64 KJAN 260800
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
300 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather is anticipated this weekend in the wake of the
   departing system.
- Dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures look to continue
   next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Through Sunday: Dry weather and slightly cooler than normal
temperatures are expected. Early morning surface analysis had a
stalled cold front nearly along the Gulf coast and a 1015mb high
centered over the southern Plains. This surface high will weaken as
it shifts to the northeast through Saturday but then strengthen
Sunday as it remains centered northeast of our region. This will
provide a northerly flow through the period and keep the Gulf closed
for us. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the
circulation around a positively tilted upper level trough, the axis
of which extended from the eastern Great Lakes region back across
our CWA and over eastern Texas. The northern portion of the upper
level trough will lift out to the northeast while the middle portion
closes off a low over northern Alabama and the Tennessee valley. A
few models generate some light precipitation this afternoon over our
northeast most zones but consensus is dry for our CWA. The closed
low will shift east through Sunday helping to maintain dry weather
over our CWA. With a drier airmass over our CWA, radiational cooling
is expected to lead to morning lows dropping into the 50s across the
northern half of the CWA Saturday and Sunday mornings. Afternoon
highs will top out closer to normal Saturday and a couple degrees
warmer Sunday. Some of the guidance showed probabilities for patchy
dense fog across the central portions of the area this morning.
Patchy fog has started developing in spots across the CWA but
confidence remains low in dense fog development. /22/
The pattern at least gets a little more interesting into the middle
of next week, though. The Southwest low will become absorbed in a
deepening trough off the West Coast, and the central CONUS ridge
will amplify in response. Models generally agree that the
Southeastern U.S. low will cut off and spin over the southern
Appalachians. A tropical disturbance with a High (90%) chance of
development in the next few days will be steered northwest toward
this broad low pressure system  by early to mid next week. Any
impacts won`t be felt across our forecast area, but the pattern
should lock in the low pressure to our east through the end of this
7-day forecast. It appears more likely that we will be under the
influence of drier flow, but some wrap around moisture producing
rain by Wednesday or Thursday cannot entirely be ruled out. Pattern
will generally keep temps near normal late September and early
October. /NF/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions will continue until after 09Z when cntrl and
eastern sites will observe MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys. Conditions wl
improve by 15Z and VFR conditions wl prevail through the remainder
of the TAF period. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  62  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      85  62  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     84  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   88  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       83  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    83  58  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     85  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
22/NF/

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion