Jungo, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

724
FXUS65 KLKN 292108
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
208 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 150 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
* A stronger and wetter weather system will affect northern and
  central Nevada through Tuesday.
* Locally moderate to heavy rain possible across portions of
  west-central and northern Nevada this evening.
  into tonight.
* Unsettled weather across the north after mid-week but
  confidence remains low-moderate in the forecast at this time.
* Much cooler morning low temperatures possible during the
  weekend with readings in the 20s and 30s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Convective activity is beginning across
central Nevada with cells moving northward. The airmass remains
fairly moist with dewpoint readings in the 40s over the area.
Southwest flow aloft out ahead of an upper level upper trough
over the eastern Pacific and just off the coast of the western
United States. Winds are expected to be breezy over the central
portions of Nevada with gusts to about 25 mph today. Surface
computed CAPE values are around 200 to 450 J/kg and lifted
indices are forecast to be around -1 to -3C. As a result, the area
will continue to see shower and thunderstorm development this
afternoon. Storm motions remain around 10 to 15 knots at this
time. The activity is expected to increase during the overnight
hours as a cold front is poised to move through the area late
tonight into Tuesday. Precipitation amounts look quite robust
with this feature with some of the higher amounts are situated
across portions of southwestern Lander and northwest Nye counties
where a half inch to an inch of rainfall is possible. There is a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for the upcoming period and
will need to be watched for hydrologic products. Overnight lows
will be in the 40s and 50s.
The showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue
for Tuesday with activity waning through the afternoon from west
to east. Winds will continue out of the southwest with gusts of 20
to 25 mph. Highs will generally be in the 60s and 70s. Skies will
be mostly cloudy to start the morning but will gradually becoming
partly to mostly sunny from west to east. Look for mainly dry
conditions during the overnight on Tuesday with lows in the 40s.
A weak impulse is expected to pass north of the forecast area on
Wednesday, affecting only the northern sections of the forecast
area with light showers. The area being focused upon is I-80
north. Chances for precipitation are around twenty to thirty
percent. Highs will continue to be in the 70s with another breezy
afternoon in store with gusts to 20 to 25 mph. Light shower
activity will remain in the north with only a fifteen to perhaps
twenty percent chance during the overnight with lows in the 40s.
For Thursday and Friday model simulations are showing another
upper low dropping southward from the Pacific Northwest states.
The progression of this system is expected to be south across
California. This will bring an increase in showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the forecast area. Highs will be in the 70s on
Thursday but will cool into the 60s on Friday. Overnight lows
will be in the 30s and 40s Thursday night with readings in the
30s.
Look for mainly dry conditions Saturday through Monday with
isolated showers possible in eastern Nevada Saturday. Highs will
be cool with readings in the 60s Saturday and 50s and 60s on
Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows will be in the 30s.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence remains high on the
incoming storm system. No changes have been made to the NBM.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminals, with
intermittent conditions (MVFR or lower) possible in the heavier
showers. By the overnight, a cold front will progress from west
to east. This will bring -SHRA/-TSRA over the area, though heavier
showers can bring IFR/MVFR. S-SW10-15G20-25KT through the early
evening hours, though any TS can bring gusty and erratic winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns with this forecast. Showers
and thunderstorms continue through Friday, but the strongest and
wettest period looks to be today through tomorrow afternoon, with
all zones having at least a 30% chance of wetting rain and zones
424/427/438/469 having 80% or higher. Afternoon winds continue to
look breezy, but min RH values will be well above critical
thresholds, preventing any serious fire weather threats.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...94

NWS LKN Office Area Forecast Discussion