Joplin, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

780
FXUS63 KSGF 220828
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
328 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur across areas
  mainly along and south of I-44 through this morning. Locally
  heavy rainfall and lightning will be the main risk. Where
  multiple storms are able to track over the same locations,
  localized flooding will be the primary risk.
- Confidence is increasing in the best chance for additional
  widespread heavy rainfall and flooding to occur across our
  southwestern counties Tuesday into Wednesday.
- Seasonal temperatures and lingering rain chances will occur
  late this week as several upper level disturbances move
  through the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Satellite imagery showed a complex of showers and storms
shifting east to of the region this morning as shortwave energy
shifts east. Additional development was occuring in northeastern
Oklahoma and northern Arkansas as another shortwave moves
through the mid and upper level flow. This will allow for
additional shower and storm development through this morning
along and south of I-44 with the best potential along the
Arkansas state line.
Where clouds have begun to clear across far southeastern Kansas
and, fog has begun to develop. Will monitor its extent through
the morning for a potential Fog Advisory if needed.
As the low level jet begins to weaken through this morning,
this afternoon, coverage of showers is expected to diminish
allowing for a potentially dry afternoon into the evening.
Cloud cover and rainfall should keep temperatures seasonable in
the upper 70s to lower 80s, though lows are expected to stay
mild in the middle to upper 60s.
Ensemble clusters and synoptic models continue to hone in on a
better solution for the timing of the next round of rain and
storms. Expectations are for the next, and possibly most
impactful, round of rain to begin later tonight and continue
through Tuesday. The next in a series of shortwaves will move
across the plains today and will become the focus for more
widespread rainfall through midweek. Medium range models do show
a coupled jet streak that sets up over the region which will
allow for much more efficient lift. With the couple jet region
over the Ozarks, a thunderstorm complex is forecast to move into
region late tonight into Tuesday morning (a Marginal Risk is in
place west of I-49 tonight for this complex). The wake of this
system would likely generate an MCV, which would be the focus
for additional development of thunderstorms somewhere across the
region. Where the MCV develops and moves still remains
uncertain but confidence is better that the environment will
support training heavy thunderstorms through the day Tuesday.
There remains fine details that may change but the Extreme
Forecast Index still shows a strong QPF signal across the
region with unseasonably high values and shifts of the tail
suggesting several members with "extreme" rainfall solutions
compared to normal September rainfall. Most models leaning
toward producing a swath of 3-4 inches somewhere across our
region through Tuesday. A lesser number of models are drier with
only 1-2 inches of rain. Despite the differences, confidence
continues to increasing in a more widespread heavy rainfall and
flooding threat Tuesday into Wednesday. The WPC has a Slight (2
of 4) Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook for the area during this
time period.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Seasonal temperatures and lingering rain chances are forecast
for the remainder of the week as the main system slowly shifts
eastward through the end of the week. Rain chances will still
linger, into Thursday and possibly early Friday morning but
washouts are not necessarily expected after Wednesday. At the
same time, temperatures are forecast to be cooler in the middle
70s to lower 80s. Lows are also expected to cool down into the
lower to middle 50s.
Upper level ridging that moves over the region for the weekend
which should allow for a period of dry, pleasant and seasonable
weather.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Showers and storms are expected to continue to move across the
region, mainly south of the KSGF and KJLN areas. The KBBG
terminal can expect MVFR to IFR conditions with low ceilings
and visibilities from rainfall and ample low level moisture.
With low level moisture and light winds, areas of fog will also
impact the KBBG area.
Surface winds will remain generally light and variable except in
thunderstorms.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion