Jermyn, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

034
FXUS64 KFWD 292322
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
622 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thick high cloud cover will continue to spread across the region
  tonight. No precipitation is expected.
- Quiet weather will continue through next weekend with near to
  above normal temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 143 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025/
/Today Through Tuesday Afternoon/
An upper-level shortwave that is currently moving through
Colorado/New Mexico will continue to transit east into the
Southern Plains over the short term period. This will spread high-
level moisture across the region through tomorrow, leading to
mostly cloudy skies. Since cloud cover is not expected until
closer to peak heating, high temperatures today will still be able
to get to the mid-upper 80s.
This shortwave is also spreading strong lift as it passes, which
is culminating in the elevated precipitation echoes currently seen
on radar across the Panhandle and West Texas (and eventually our
area). Unfortunately, not much if anything is expected to reach
the surface. The moisture out ahead of this shortwave is in the
mid-levels, generally around 450-550 mb (per both current MAF/LUB
ACARS and forecast HRRR/RAP soundings). In forecast soundings
across North and Central Texas, the sub-cloud layer is very dry
which will promote evaporation of most raindrops before reaching
the ground, resulting in virga. We cannot cancel out a rain drop
or two, but that will be the exception and not the rule. We will
continue to carry a dry forecast through Tuesday.
The shortwave will continue to move overnight through Tuesday,
shifting the cloud cover east. Cloudy skies will keep morning
temperatures warmer in the 60s to low 70s. Skies will clear out on
Tuesday, with light winds continuing and highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 143 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025/
/Tuesday Evening Onward/
The shortwave will exit to the east midweek, with an upper-level
ridge nudging northward into Texas late this week. Quiet
conditions are expected for our region the rest of the forecast
period. Morning lows will be in the 60s to around 70, and
afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s. Going beyond the 7 day
forecast period, troughing over the western CONUS will allow
multiple shortwaves to eject towards the Continental Divide,
promoting the potential for a more unsettled pattern mid next
week. We`ll keep an eye on that potential and relay more details
as it comes within the scope of the forecast.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
A broad shield of cirrus cloudiness will continue to spill
eastward across North Texas this evening, in advance of an upper
level trough located over the Southern Rockies. There is some mid
to upper level forcing for ascent ahead of this trough, and
moisture is sufficient to produce some very light radar returns
across Western North Texas. This activity will progress eastward
toward the I-35 corridor this evening, but with moisture extremely
limited in the lowest 10kft of the atmosphere, none of this
precipitation will reach the ground. Otherwise, a VFR forecast at
all TAF sites tonight and on through Tuesday. The cirrus coverage
should diminish during the morning hours Tuesday, yielding
increased SCT250 conditions after 18z.
A sprawling surface high extending from Texas into the Great
Lakes is producing a very weak pressure gradient over North Texas.
By and large, the high to our northeast will continue to create a
very light easterly flow regime tonight through Thursday
afternoon, though wind directions will likely fluctuate between 030
and 150 degrees at any given time. Speeds should stay very light,
however, generally on the order of 3 to 6 knots at all terminals.
Bradshaw
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  89  67  90  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                67  90  64  91  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               66  86  61  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              64  87  61  90  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            66  87  63  89  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              71  90  68  91  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             66  88  63  89  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           69  90  66  91  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              64  90  62  91  63 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       64  90  61  92  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion