Jericho, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

955
FXUS64 KMEG 201131
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
631 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s through this
  weekend, gradually cooling by the middle to end of next week.
- Drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen due to a
  lack of appreciable rainfall and prolonged heat through the
  weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Quiet overnight hours currently across the Mid-South, with some
scattered clouds beginning to filter in from the northwest. Winds
have remained a bit elevated thus far, but with calming winds
closer to sunrise and waning dew point depressions, would not be
surprised if a few locations see some fog development. Latest
HREF guidance does have about a 20-40% chance for some locations,
albeit this fog will likely remain on the patchy side. Any fog
that develops will quickly mix out following sunrise.
Somewhat of an unsettled forecast will likely continue across the
Mid-South this weekend and into the beginning of next week, with
no strong upper-level influences to drive our ultimate pattern in
one direction or another. A weak upper-level trough currently
resides over the northern Plains and into the western portions of
the Midwest, leaving the Mid-South on the far southern edge.
Given the weak, northwesterly flow aloft, will not rule out a few
thunderstorms across the north this afternoon. As this trough
breaks down into Sunday and Monday with a more zonal flow regime,
do expect to see an increase in our PoPs. With the increase, the
best chances (40-50%) do remain across the northern half of the
area. With the weak upper-level forcing, we are still waiting on a
much needed frontal boundary to knock our temperatures back down.
Unfortunately, this means that high temperatures will remain
above-normal into the beginning of next week, generally in
spanning the low to mid 90s.
By the middle of next week, uncertainty still remains with the
eventual path of an upper-level low off of the Rockies. The two
leading scenarios from LREF guidance lean heavily on this
progression, with one favoring a cooler/wetter pattern while the
other favors only a slightly cooler and drier pattern. The good
news from this is that a cool down to near to below normal
temperatures looks likely to end next week, with uncertainty
remaining on the precipitation side of things. Given the ongoing
drought conditions, a wetter pattern would certainly be more
ideal, but will not place too much confidence in the PoP forecast
beyond midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The main aviation impact this period will be potential TS
development this afternoon and again overnight. Due to the sparse
nature of TS development this afternoon, opted to not include
convection in TAFs. Overnight, another round of showers and
thunderstorms will approach the airspace from the northwest. The
exact extent and timing of this activity is hard to pinpoint, but
went ahead with mention at JBR and MEM through the morning hours.
Otherwise, expect VFR CIGs and light winds.
ANS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Dry conditions are expected to persist through the weekend, with
minRH values remaining in the upper 30% to low 40% range,
especially across portions of north MS. Even with scattered
showers in the forecast, relatively low QPF amounts will not aid
with current drought conditions. Luckily, winds are expected to
remain on the lighter side through this period. Looking into next
week, some additional moisture will aid to raise minRH values with
potentially some much needed rain for the Mid-South. While this
will likely not be a drought-buster, it could bring some temporary
relief to fire weather concerns by the end of next week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ANS

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion