Jarvis College, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

661
FXUS64 KSHV 291141
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
641 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Mostly dry weather will continue throughout the next week, with
   maybe some isolated showers across our far eastern zones late
   on Thursday.
- As we go through the work week into next weekend, temperatures
   will remain above normal through the forecast period.
 &&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Upper ridging continues to dominate across our portion of the
country but the ridge axis is forecast to shift eastward on
Tuesday as an inverted trough moves into the Middle Red River
Valley. This trough will have some forcing in association with it
but there is no moisture unfortunately to force to generate any
kind of precipitation chances. This inverted trough axis shifts
south and east towards the Lower Miss Valley on Wed with weak
upper ridging trying to nudge its way back into our region from
the Ohio Valley by Thursday.
The upper trough to our southeast tries to reestablish itself
across the northern Gulf Coast by late Thursday into Friday and
even through the upcoming weekend. Have been talking about the
possibility of this retrograding upper trough across the southeast
U.S. for the last couple of days and the reluctance of the NBM to
spit out any precipitation chances by late this work week. The
NBM has finally come around to such a solution with widely
scattered shower and thunderstorm mention for Thu only but as the
we get closer to the upcoming weekend and assuming the trough axis
continues to remain located across the Tenn Valley into the Lower
Miss Valley, would not be surprised to see additional pops in the
forecast for at least the eastern third for Friday and into the
upcoming weekend as well.
Concerning temperatures, without any frontal passages to speak of
and without any considerable rain chances, persistence is the
best forecast tool and that will result in above normal high
temperatures during the afternoon and low temperatures at night
continuing.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
For the 29/12Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout this forecast period. Throughout the daytime hours, a
lower VFR Cu field will develop right on cue by the late morning
and early afternoon, dissipating soon after sunset, with another
evening of mostly clear skies to follow. Winds will remain light
and variable to nearly calm through the night, becoming
northeasterly at sustained speeds of 5 to 10 mph during the
afternoon.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Storm spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  69  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  87  64  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  89  66  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  88  63  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  87  68  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  89  66  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  92  68  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion