Jacksons Creek, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

393
FXUS62 KRAH 200011
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
810 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak backdoor cold front will impact the area late Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Other than the front, high pressure will be the
primary weather feature into the beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 810 PM Friday...
There is a strong signal in the model guidance that dense fog will
develop again tonight, similar to what happened late last night.
Have gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory primarily for areas
to the east of Interstate 95. Cannot rule out the possibility that
the advisory will need to be extended farther to the west, but east
of the interstate is where the confidence is highest for the fog to
occur, especially considering what was observed earlier. Lows will
generally be in the low to mid 60s, with some isolated upper 50s in
the usual cool spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Friday...
* Mostly dry backdoor cold front should pass through the region
  Saturday night.
Above normal temperatures will continue Saturday ahead of a weak
backdoor cold frontal passage. High temperatures are expected to
reach the mid 80s in the north to the upper 80s in the south. A
backdoor cold front should reach the region from the north Saturday
night. A lack of moisture will diminish rain chances, however a very
isolated shower cannot be ruled out especially in the north Saturday
evening/night. Behind the front, a deck of low stratus looks likely
to develop in the north and east Saturday night. Low temperatures
should dip into the low-to-mid 60s overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...
* Near to above normal temperatures expected through the period.
* Precipitation chances return early-middle next week, though some
  uncertainty exists.
Aloft, the departing s/w should lift newd away from the area on Sun.
Next, a nrn stream s/w should track ewd across the Great Lakes/srn
Ontario Sun night/Mon, while a srn stream s/w moves across the
lwr/mid MS Valley. Yet another nrn stream s/w will move across the
Pacific NW Sun night then continue sewd across the Intermountain
West Mon/Mon night. This s/w will become the dominant low mid-late
week. A longwave trough will amplify and, encompassing all three
shortwaves, extend from ern Quebec swwd to the cntl/srn Rockies by
Mon night/Tue. The trough and embedded shortwaves/lows will continue
progressing slowly ewd Tue and Wed, with the aforementioned dominant
s/w low closing off over the cntl Plains/mid-MS Valley on Wed. This
low could become cutoff west of the Appalachians by Thu, with
ridging to the east, however the location and strength of the low
varies between the available guidance. The low should drift slowly
nnewd through Fri, eventually getting picked up by the nrn stream
flow again sometime Fri or Sat. At the surface, the 1020+ mb high
over the Northeast will continue ridging swwd into the area as it
shifts ewd over the nrn Atlantic on Sun. Meanwhile, the inverted
trough and possibly embedded coastal low, will linger off the East
Coast, weakening/moving away from the region Sun night as the ridge
persists over the area. The ridge/high will gradually shift ewd and
offshore Mon/Mon night. A trough may move across the region Tue/Wed,
while a low pressure system develops over the mid-MS Valley and high
pressure progresses sewd across ern Canada. The high will try to
ridge swd across the mid-Atlantic as the low lifts nwd toward the
Great Lakes on Thu, however the differences noted aloft are also
present at the surface.
Precipitation: The forecast should be largely dry through Tue/Tue
night, although a stray shower cannot be ruled out on Sun. Forecast
uncertainty increases mid-late week noting the differences among the
guidance wrt the low pressure system to the west. With that in mind,
chances for showers/storm return for Wed through Fri.
Temperatures: Near to above normal temperatures should prevail
through the end of the week. Warmest day will be Wed or Thu, coolest
Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 810 PM Friday...
TAF period: Much of the 24 hour period should be VFR, except
widespread fog is expected to develop across eastern counties. Once
again, INT/GSO should have VFR conditions throughout the entire TAF,
while the other three terminals are expected to have visibility
reductions. While RDU only had a brief visibility drop to 8 miles
last night, it appears that fog remained just east of the airport,
and maintained the inherited prevailing MVFR/tempo IFR TAF. Also
maintained the prevailing MVFR/tempo LIFR at FAY based on a
persistence forecast. However, with good consistency between models
indicating LIFR fog at RWI, have added a few hours of prevailing
LIFR fog at that site. All fog should scatter out by 14Z.
Light/variable wind is expected overnight, with a 5-10 kt wind out
of the east-northeast on Saturday.
Outlook: After VFR conditions Saturday evening, a backdoor cold
front could bring IFR/LIFR ceilings late Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Another round of patchy IFR/LIFR restrictions will be
possible late Sunday night into Monday morning. A chance of rain
will return to the forecast late Wednesday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ028-
043-078-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Green

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion