Islamorada, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

015
FXUS62 KKEY 020220
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1020 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
We do love a mostly uneventful shift from time to time! Our KBYX
radar has started to detect a handful of showers in the vicinity
of the Upper Keys. This is a result of late afternoon convection
over the peninsula pushing off of the mainland. Our 00Z KKEY
sounding showed substantial dry air above the 700mb level, so the
activity that is migrating into our forecast area shouldn`t be
able to hold up for very long. The shallow nature of this moisture
will also prevent these showers from building into thunderstorms.
However, there are a few rogue boundaries over our waters, and
outflow collisions could build additional showers during the next
few hours. For that reason, we will continue to carry our chance
of showers and our slight chance of thunderstorms.
Land observations are currently reporting temperatures in the
lower 80s, but our island communities in the Upper Keys are
reporting temperatures in the upper 70s due to an outflow boundary
from the aforementioned shower activity. Dew points are in the
lower to mid 70s, so not terribly humid, but we wouldn`t mind if
that came down a few more degrees.
All in all, the forecast is unfolding as expected, and no updates
are needed to this package.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, gentle northwest
breezes will gradually veer to the northeast during the overnight
hours, and into early Thursday morning, due to high pressure over
the eastern U.S. However, this high pressure is slowly sliding
toward the eastern coastline, and will lead to freshening
northeast to east breezes Thursday evening. Winds will then clock
around towards the southeast for the upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, but residual
cloud debris from distant showers may lead to infrequent instances
of MVFR CIGs during the very early morning hours. Otherwise,
weather conditions will remain benign. Northwesterly breezes near
5 knots will veer to the northeast and increase to near 10 knots
by sunset. Crosswind concerns are low due to the light nature of
these breezes.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  79  88  78  88 /  20  30  40  40
Marathon  78  87  78  86 /  30  40  40  40
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....MC
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion