Inman, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

239
FXUS63 KICT 021727
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms this morning along and east of I-135.
- Above average temperatures expected today through the weekend
- Cool down arrives next week with periodic chances of showers
  and storms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Despite being on the backside of the primary shortwave trough
(located over the Missouri River Valley and sliding eastward), a
a very subtle perturbation in the upper flow exists across
portions of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. This, along
with some weak mid-level WAA on the eastern periphery of a
building ridge from the southwest, is creating a region of
ascent generally along and east of I-135/US-81 early this
morning. A region of ACCAS has already developed from Concordia
to Ponca City as of 3AM, and a few isolated showers and storms
should develop shortly and meander eastward across the Flint
Hills this morning. As the main trough axis exits eastward and
the mid/upper ridge becomes more dominate across the region
later today, increased subsidence should help to gradually end
rain chances either late this morning or early this afternoon.
Similar to yesterday, rainfall totals won`t amount to much, but
some locations could start off wet this morning before giving
way to mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs in the mid to
upper 80s.
With the ridge building in from the southwest, a period of warmer
temperatures is expected going into the weekend. Generally speaking,
afternoon highs and nighttime lows will be around 10 degrees above
average for the beginning of October; this will put afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to potentially the low 90s, and nighttime lows in
the mid 60s both Friday and Saturday. Additionally, with an
approaching strong shortwave trough and antecedent increasing flow
aloft across the Rockies, surface pressure falls across the High
Plains will tighten the pressure gradient Friday and Saturday.
Breezy to windy conditions are possible, especially Saturday
afternoon. Currently, wind gusts around 45-50 mph appear
possible Saturday afternoon across portions of central Kansas.
Fortunately, despite the recent dry-ish period, vegetation
remains quite green, and sufficient moisture will keep RH values
over 35% which will significantly dampen any fire weather
concerns despite the windy conditions.
The aforementioned strong shortwave trough is expected to eject into
the central/northern plains late on Sunday, and this will likely
serve as the catalyst for some cooler air along with rain chances
Sunday night into Monday morning. A slow moving/stalling cold front
will be draped across the area on Monday and Tuesday. This, along
with a series of perturbations embedded within zonal flow
aloft, will support periodic chances for showers and storms are
through much of the beginning of next week. At this time, it
appears so through the cold front will eventually push through
the region by the middle of next week, and a couple of days of
more fall-like temperatures appear likely.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.
Morning showers are finally dissipating over the Flint Hills
and were the result of some warm advection across a mid level
baroclinic zone. VFR conditions are anticipated area wide
through the next 24 hours with gusty southeast winds expected
this afternoon and again Fri afternoon for locations along and
especially west of I-135.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion