Hygiene, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

025
FXUS65 KBOU 190520
AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1120 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will warm back to seasonal averages for the
  weekend, with a chance of diurnal showers/storms mainly over the
  mountains.
- Cold front Monday with a modest increase in shower activity for
  the early part of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 112 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
There`s a battle this afternoon in the cumulus fields between the
heating and drying. We may actually see some decrease later this
afternoon with continued drying. In any event, skies should clear
quickly this evening. Friday will be drier and warmer, skies may
just be clear though some high clouds could start to spread in
from the southwest and a little cumulus in the afternoons is also
possible.
For this weekend, mid level moisture will be increasing but the
low levels will remain dry, and the cloud cover may inhibit
convection. We still expect scattered afternoon showers/storms
over the mountains, with a slight chance in adjacent areas.
The models continue to show a substantial shortwave trough
dropping down the east side of the ridge, passing by us
Monday/Tuesday. There`s still a gradual westward trend with us,
increasing the chance of some synoptically forced showers as this
passes. The NBM is following this and has introduced some PoPs
Monday. It may still be running a bit behind the latest models
however. This is all still happening in a pretty dry environment,
so we don`t expect this to be much, but a batch of showers as this
system passes Monday afternoon or Monday night seems like a decent
possibility. Guidance has also trended downward with
Monday/Tuesday temperatures, this could wind up being a 15 to 20
degree drop from Sunday to Tuesday. If we get clearing and light
winds at the right time (Tuesday or Wednesday morning?), we could
have some spotty frost in the coldest plains locations. But most
of the plains should have lows in the 40s. After this chance for a
small amount of rain, it looks like another stretch of dry and
eventually warmer weather.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1119 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions thru the period. Drainage winds overnight will
become light west by 15z.  Winds will then shift to light north
by 18z and then to easterly by 23Z.
&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gimmestad
AVIATION...RPK

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion