Huslia, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

772
FXAK69 PAFG 291140
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
340 AM AKDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain/Snow continues across the Eastern Interior through Tuesday as
a ridge builds up, ahead of a front associated with a low moving
into the Bering Sea. This frontal passage is expected to bring
gusty winds between 45 and 55 mph and wet QPF values between
0.25" and 1.0" across the West Coast. Ridging conditions ahead of
the front will aid in temperatures dropping into the low 20s
across the Interior early Wednesday morning. All of this leads up
to a very familiar wet, westerly pattern setting up across the
state by the end of the week.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered rain and snow showers will continue across the Eastern
  Interior through Tuesday afternoon.
- Dry conditions begin build in out of the west early this week
  under increasing high pressure, with clearer skies supporting
  warmer afternoon highs and colder overnight lows.
- Next system moves in Wednesday to the Central Interior with a
  mix of rain and snow, as the Eastern Interior remains dry.
- South flow builds up across the AK Range, behind the front,
  bringing wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph through Isabel and
  Windy Pass.
- Highs in the mid 30 to upper 40s, with overnight lows in the 20s
  to low 30s.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Mostly sunny and dry conditions continue through Monday, with
  isolated showers along the West Coast.
- Next system moves into Western Alaska out of Siberia on Tuesday,
  with widespread precipitation, gusty winds, and warmer
  temperatures.
- GUsty S/SW winds between 45 and 55 mph are expected along the
  West Coast, peaking Tuesday into early Wednesday.
- Highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s, with overnight lows in the
  20s to mid 30s.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Scattered rain and snow showers through Tuesday across central
  and eastern portions of the North Slope and Brooks Range as the
  western portions of the region remain dry and mostly sunny.
- Next system moves into Western Alaska out of Siberia on Tuesday,
  with widespread precipitation, gusty winds, and warmer
  temperatures. Strongest winds and heaviest precipitation
  expected across western portions of the Arctic Coast and Brooks
  Range.
- Highs in the low to mid 30s along the Arctic Coast, teens to low
  30s in the Brooks Range, with overnight lows in the Brooks Range
  dropping to the single digits and teens.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
An 525 decameter Arctic trough continues to rotate along eastern
portions of the state. Rain/snow showers are expected to continue
along the NE Arctic and Eastern Interior through Tuesday
afternoon, when weak ridging builds up ahead of a 520 decameter
low moving out of Siberia. While the trough axis of this low is
expected to extend far south in the Bering, the main closed low
will tack just south of St. Lawrence Island and into the YK Delta
by Wednesday. QPF totals with this system for Tuesday and
Wednesday are between 0.25" and 1.0" along the coast with around
0.10" to 0.25" across the Western Interior. A mix of rain and
snow is expected across mid and upper elevations, with warmer
temperatures supporting more rain chances across lower elevations.
Wind gusts will increase to around 45 to 55 mph across the West
Coast as this trough progresses. Gusts will peak in around In and
West of the Norton Sound Tuesday morning, shifting north to the
Kotzebue Sound and Chukchi sea by Tuesday night. The front out
ahead of the trough will move into the Central Interior by
Wednesday morning and the Eastern Interior by Wednesday night.
Broad troughing is expected to continue into the mid-week as
remnants of the previously mentioned Arctic trough gets wrapped
back around and into this newly formed trough. This will also keep
the rain/snow chances around for the Western portion of the state
through the end of the week.
In regards to model agreement, there is little to no deviation for
the overall pattern through Wednesday afternoon. Near the end of
the short-term, the AK-NAM begins to show signs of the trough
remaining a bit stronger with cooler 850mb Arctic temperatures
being advected into the trough. This shouldn`t play too much of a
roll with the overall forecast.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The week ends with broad, westerly flow setting up across the
state. Models are in quite a bit of disagreement with some of the
shortwave features that move across the state on Saturday, but the
overall pattern will remain wet. All of the models begin to show
another deep trough forming from the Arctic, down through the
Bering Sea by the end of the weekend. Models are hinting at a
surface low moving through the Bering from the SW. Ensemble
members of the global models are showing various E/NE tracks, and
strengths, once it crosses the 55 deg line around Saturday
morning. This will continue to be monitored as some of these
tracks could produce some coastal concerns for the end of next
weekend.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Multiple rounds of low pressure will be moving out of Siberia and
across the Bering Sea. The first one, which models are hinting at
being the stronger of the two, will take a southeasterly track and
fill in quickly as it moves south of St. Lawrence Island and over
the YK-Delta. This is expected to bring 1-3 ft of higher tides
across the Norton Sound and YK Delta coasts during this time.
A second, weaker low will will take move out of Siberia in a
similar location, northwest of St. Lawrence Island, Thursday
night. However, this low is expected to take more of a E/NE track,
moving across St. Lawrence Island and move over the Seward
Peninsula by Friday morning.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&
$$
Twombly

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion