Hunter Aaf, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

631
FXUS62 KCHS 232237
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
637 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the region will weaken throughout the
day. A slow moving storm system could affect the area later
this week and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Isolated sea breeze showers along the SC coast this afternoon
should dissipate by late afternoon. Surface high pressure will
build over the western Atlantic, with low-level flow turning to
the S by late tonight. Can`t rule out patchy fog later tonight,
especially across inland areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aloft, modest ridging should be in place Wednesday into Thursday,
prior to the arrival of a long-wave trough and leading h5 vort
energy late Thursday into the Friday. This should result in warmer
and relatively dry conditions mid-week with afternoon highs in the
low-mid 90s and lows in the low-mid 70s. Conditions become more
unsettled heading into late week as the mid-upper trough helps drive
a sfc cold front to the region late Thursday, then eventually across
the local area Friday. Southerly flow will help advect deeper
moisture to the region while fropa occurs, suggesting the potential
for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (largest
coverage Friday). Although timing will play a significant role in
thunderstorm strength, a few stronger thunderstorms are possible
along near fropa. Once fropa occurs, temps become noticeably cooler,
limiting Friday afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aloft, a mid-upper trough will slowly slide east, placing several
rounds of h5 shortwave energy across the Southeast United States
while a cold front shifts further offshore and eventually stalls
across the western Atlantic this weekend. Some guidance suggests the
mid-upper trough attempting to become a cutoff low, drifting across
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast United States late weekend, helping
produce unsettled weather conditions post fropa into early next
week. The upper low and placement of the front offshore could play a
factor in tropical interests across the central/western Atlantic
early next week, but a considerable amount of spread/uncertainty in
overall tropical cyclone development/track remains next week. NHC
currently depicts a few regions of possible development across the
central/Western Atlantic, but will need to be monitored closely
during the next few days until the pattern becomes more clear.
Regardless, temperatures this weekend will return close to seasonal
normals, generally in the mid-upper 80s for highs and mid-upper 60s
inland to lower 70s near the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
24/00z TAF Discussion:
Light winds will prevail at all terminals tonight. The main
forecast concern centers on the potential for fog/stratus.
Guidance has been too aggressive with fog/stratus development
for the past several weeks and tonight looks no different. 1000
hPa condensation pressure deficits are forecast to remain very
high which suggests any fog that forms will be rather shallow.
This is likely why the various guidance packages are having a
hard time resolving the fog situation. The "best" fog parameters
look to setup across both Charleston terminals where higher
low- level moisture will be found. Shallow ground fog (MIFG) was
highlighted at both KCHS and KJZI overnight with TEMPO 3SM MIFG
at KCHS 09-12z and prevailing 4SM MIFG with a TEMPO 09-12 1SM
BR at KJZI given fog at that terminal is typically enhanced by
the proximity of the Stono River. Conditions were kept VFR at
KSAV with just a brief period of 6SM MIFG occurring just before
daybreak. VFR will prevail at all terminals after daybreak.
Extended Aviation Forecast: VFR conditions should prevail at
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV terminals through Thursday morning. TEMPO flight
restrictions are possible Thursday afternoon through Saturday
with low clouds and reduced vsbys associated with showers/tstms
along a passing cold front this weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight: There are no concerns through tonight.
Wednesday through Saturday: A weak pressure gradient will be in
place across local waters mid-week with winds primarily from the
southeast and no higher than 10-15 kt through Wednesday night. Seas
will also slowly subside during this timeframe, generally to 2-3 ft.
On Thursday, the pressure gradient will slowly tighten throughout
the day in response to a large-scale trough and associated sfc cold
front approaching the Southeast United States from the west-
northwest. A slight uptick in southerly winds is anticipated during
the day, generally around 15 kt, followed by more frequent southerly
winds in the 15-20 kt range Thursday night into Friday as a front
approaches and shifts across local waters to start off the weekend,
then possibly stalls beyond local waters offshore late weekend. Seas
should also respond with fropa, building up to 3-4 ft. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms could accompany the front and persist into
late weekend. Post fropa, seas should subside about a foot and winds
should turn more northwesterly and return to the 10-15 kt.
Rip Currents: Onshore flow and arriving swell energy of 2-3 ft with
a period of 11-12 seconds will be supportive of a Moderate Risk of
rip currents at all beaches through Wednesday.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion